Managing Riyadh's Urban Growth: Assessing Resident Satisfaction in the Current Residential Neighborhoods and Examining Smart Growth Strategy Preferences for the Future Growth in the Context of Rapid Urbanization

Abstract

Globally, urbanization and urban growth have reached unprecedented rates in cities. Riyadh, the capital of Saudi Arabia, is no exception to the rapid urbanization and growth that has occurred in a sprawling and low-density pattern. Riyadh has set a controversial target of doubling its current population of 7.1 million to reach 10-15 million by 2030, emphasizing the importance of making this growth sustainable. Currently, the literature on the applications of smart growth gives little attention to public participation in decision-making regarding the future growth of cities. Specifically, there is a lack of research focused on integrating the public into the decision-making process for managing population increases over a short time frame (e.g., ten years). In Riyadh, the planning process does not provide precise mechanisms for public engagement or preferences in shaping future growth. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to manage this rapid urbanization and growth smartly by shaping future growth from the perspective of residents' preferences and how to draw that into urban policies. This study aims to shed light on residents' satisfaction with the current neighborhoods. In addition, the study aims to investigate residents' preference for the smart growth strategy as a new urban pattern in the city. The study uses the survey method to measure residents' satisfaction with the existing neighborhoods of Riyadh through an online questionnaire. Furthermore, another online questionnaire that combines both a discrete choice experiment and visual preference for the principles of smart growth is used to examine preferences for smart growth. This study adopted a number of statistical models, and the questionnaire was conducted with 3,111 respondents for the first questionnaire and 1,710 respondents for the second questionnaire as completed answers. The results of the first questionnaire were analyzed using descriptive statistics and by examining the correlations between neighborhood elements, including the physical environment and demographic data. This study also employed the multinomial logit model to analyze the results of residents' preferences, and the latent class analysis to reveal the homogeneity and heterogeneity of preferences among respondents. The results of the neighborhood satisfaction questionnaire indicated a divergence in opinions across the three sections identified in the first questionnaire. The results indicated dissatisfaction, particularly with neighborhood characteristics, transportation and accessibility elements, and urban landscape components. Satisfaction levels leaned more toward neutrality to dissatisfaction, reflecting the possibility that rapid growth may have affected the quality of services and facilities in neighborhoods. The results of the second questionnaire showed strong and explicit preferences for neighborhoods characterized by walkability and bikeability lanes, transportation availability, and parks across both 30-meter and 60-meter streets. There was also a preference, though to a lesser extent, for diverse housing options and densities represented by seven-story buildings, as well as a slight preference for mixed-use buildings. The latent class analysis further revealed six distinct groups of urban preferences in the neighborhoods. These findings highlighted the need for improvements in some urban dimensions discussed in this study, which showed low satisfaction results. Moreover, the findings enabled the creation of a set of recommended urban development policies to ensure that future growth aligns with the preferences of Riyadh residents. The results reflected the need to create vibrant, integrated, and comprehensive urban communities that enhance quality of life while providing diverse transportation options, green spaces, appropriate densities, mixed-use developments, and diverse housing options.