Framework for using downscaled climate model projections in ecological experiments to quantify plant and soil responses

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dc.contributor.authorOwen, Rachel K.en
dc.contributor.authorWebb, Elisabeth B.en
dc.contributor.authorGoyne, Keith W.en
dc.contributor.authorSvoma, Bohumil M.en
dc.contributor.authorGautam, Sagaren
dc.contributor.departmentForest Resources and Environmental Conservationen
dc.date.accessioned2020-02-19T19:14:07Zen
dc.date.available2020-02-19T19:14:07Zen
dc.date.issued2019-09en
dc.description.abstractSoil and plant responses to climate change can be quantified in controlled settings. However, the complexity of climate projections often leads researchers to evaluate ecosystem response based on general trends, rather than specific climate model outputs. Climate projections capture spatial and temporal climate extremes and variability that are lost when using mean climate trends. In addition, application of climate projections in experimental settings remains limited. Our objective was to develop a framework to incorporate statistically downscaled climate model projections into the design of temperature and precipitation treatments for ecological experiments. To demonstrate the utility of experimental treatments derived from climate projections, we used wetlands in the Great Plains as a model ecosystem for evaluating plant and soil responses. Spatial and temporal projections were selected to capture variability and intensity of projected future conditions for exemplary purposes. To illustrate climate projection application for ecological experiments, we developed temperature and precipitation treatments based on moderate-emissions scenario climate outputs (i.e., RCP4.5-650 ppm CO2 equivalent). Our temperature treatments captured weekly trends that represented cool, average, and warm temperature predictions, and our daily precipitation treatments mimicked various seasonal precipitation trends and extreme events projected for the late 21st century. Treatments were applied to two short-term controlled experiments evaluating (1) plant germination (temperature treatment applied in growth chamber) and (2) soil nitrogen cycling (precipitation treatment applied in greenhouse) responses to projected future conditions in the Great Plains. Our approach provides flexibility for selecting appropriate and precise climate model outputs to design experimental treatments. Using these techniques, ecologists can better incorporate variation in climate model projections for experimentally evaluating ecosystem responses to future climate conditions, reduce uncertainty in predictive ecological models, and apply predicted outcomes when making management and policy decisions.en
dc.description.notesThis research was part of the Missouri EPSCoR project, funded by the National Science Foundation under Award #IIA-1355406 and #IIA-1430427. Any opinions, findings, and conclusions do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Science Foundation. The work was also funded, in part, by USDA-NIFA through Hatch funding (MO-HANR0007) provided to the University of Missouri's Agricultural Research Experiment Station. The Missouri Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit is jointly sponsored by the Missouri Department of Conservation, the University of Missouri, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, the U.S. Geological Survey, and the Wildlife Management Institute. Any use of trade, firm, or product names is for descriptive purposes only and does not imply endorsement by the U.S. Government.en
dc.description.sponsorshipNational Science FoundationNational Science Foundation (NSF) [IIA-1355406, IIA-1430427]; USDA-NIFAUnited States Department of Agriculture (USDA) [MO-HANR0007]; Missouri Department of Conservation; U.S. Fish and Wildlife ServiceUS Fish & Wildlife Service; U.S. Geological SurveyUnited States Geological Survey; Wildlife Management Institute; University of Missourien
dc.format.mimetypeapplication/pdfen
dc.identifier.doihttps://doi.org/10.1002/ecs2.2857en
dc.identifier.issn2150-8925en
dc.identifier.issue9en
dc.identifier.othere02857en
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10919/96935en
dc.identifier.volume10en
dc.language.isoenen
dc.rightsCreative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unporteden
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/en
dc.subjectbias correctionen
dc.subjectclimate changeen
dc.subjectgermination studyen
dc.subjectgreenhouse studyen
dc.subjectmesocosmen
dc.subjectstatistical downscalingen
dc.titleFramework for using downscaled climate model projections in ecological experiments to quantify plant and soil responsesen
dc.title.serialEcosphereen
dc.typeArticle - Refereeden
dc.type.dcmitypeTexten
dc.type.dcmitypeStillImageen

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