Spatial-Temporal Pattern of Agricultural Total Factor Productivity Change (Tfpch) in China and Its Implications for Agricultural Sustainable Development

With increasing tension between humans and land, and arising pressure on food security in China, the improvement of total factor productivity is important to realize agricultural modernization and promote rural revitalization strategy. In this study, we applied the DEA-Malmquist index method to measure the growth of China’s agricultural total factor productivity and its decomposition indexes at the prefecture-level city scale from 2011 to 2020. We found the average annual growth rate of agricultural total factor productivity was 4.5% during this period, with technical change being the driving factor and technical efficiency change being the suppressing factor. There is an initial decrease and then an increase in the Dagum Gini coefficient. The cold and hot spot areas of agricultural Tfpch were clearly formed. During the decade, the gravity center of agricultural Tfpch has migrated from the northeast to the southwest in general. Based on the characteristics of agricultural Tfpch, China is classified into four zones. In the future, the Chinese government should balance the government and the market mechanism, improve the agricultural science and technology innovation system and technology adoption promotion system, and implement classified policies to improve agriculture production efficiency.