Bayesian Analysis of Temporal and Spatio-temporal Multivariate Environmental Data

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Date

2019-05-09

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Publisher

Virginia Tech

Abstract

High dimensional space-time datasets are available nowadays in various aspects of life such as economy, agriculture, health, environment, etc. Meanwhile, it is challenging to reveal possible connections between climate change and weather extreme events such as hurricanes or tornadoes. In particular, the relationship between tornado occurrence and climate change has remained elusive. Moreover, modeling multivariate spatio-temporal data is computationally expensive. There is great need to computationally feasible models that account for temporal, spatial, and inter-variables dependence. Our research focuses on those areas in two ways. First, we investigate connections between changes in tornado risk and the increase in atmospheric instability over Oklahoma. Second, we propose two multiscale spatio-temporal models, one for multivariate Gaussian data, and the other for matrix-variate Gaussian data. Those frameworks are novel additions to the existing literature on Bayesian multiscale models. In addition, we have proposed parallelizable MCMC algorithms to sample from the posterior distributions of the model parameters with enhanced computations.

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Keywords

Spatio-temporal analysis, Bayesian analysis, Multiscale models, Dynamic linear models, Climate change, Tornado risk, Markov Chain Monte Carlo, Trend analysis, Multivariate analysis, Matrix-variate Gaussian distribution, Reanalysis data.

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