General Aviation Demand Forecasting Models and a Microscopic North Atlantic Air Traffic Simulation Model

Abstract

This thesis is focused on two topics. The first topic is the General Aviation (GA) demand forecasting models. The contributions to this topic are three fold: 1) we calibrated an econometric model to investigate the impact of fuel price on the utilization rate of GA piston engine aircraft, 2) we adopted a logistic model to identify the relationship between fuel price and an aircraft's probability of staying active, and 3) we developed an econometric model to forecast the airport-level itinerant and local GA operations. Our calibration results are compared with those reported in literature. Demand forecasts are made with these models and compared with those prepared by the Federal Aviation Administration. The second topic is to model the air traffic in the Organized Track System (OTS) over the North Atlantic. We developed a discrete-time event model to simulate the air traffic that uses the OTS. We proposed four new operational procedures to improve the flight operations for the OTS. Two procedures aim to improve the OTS assignments in the OTS entry area, and the other two aim to benefit flights once they are inside the OTS. The four procedures are implemented with the simulation model and their benefits are analyzed. Several implementation issues are discussed and recommendations are given.