Chance, probability, and uncertainty at the edge of human reasoning: What is Knightian uncertainty?

Abstract

Research Summary: For more than a century, Frank Knight's Risk, Uncertainty, and Profit has significantly influenced entrepreneurship theory development by exploring the nature of uncertainty and the epistemic limits of entrepreneurial action. Knight's work highlights how economic actors cannot fully predict the consequences of their actions. Despite its broad influence, debates persist regarding the nature of Knightian uncertainty. This study addresses these debates through a comprehensive analysis of RUP and Knight's other published and unpublished writings to offer new insights into the nature and meaning of Knightian uncertainty, revealing Knight's holistic theory that integrates "real indeterminism," "partial knowledge," and "subjective beliefs." This analysis provides much needed construct clarity to advance contemporary theories of entrepreneurial action and the role of uncertainty in business venturing processes.

Managerial Summary: This article revisits Frank Knight's foundational work, Risk, Uncertainty, and Profit, a cornerstone in entrepreneurship research for over a century. We highlight Knight's holistic approach to uncertainty, which integrates the concepts of real indeterminism (the inherent unpredictability of future events), partial knowledge (the incomplete understanding of the present and future), and subjective beliefs (individual perceptions and interpretations). The study offers new perspectives on how Knightian uncertainty influences entrepreneurial decision-making and action, highlighting how this unique type of uncertainty plays a critical role in the business venturing process. These insights provide valuable contributions to contemporary theories of entrepreneurship, emphasizing the complexity and multifaceted nature of navigating uncertainty in business.