Assessing the Effect of Global Travel and Contact Restrictions on Mitigating the COVID-19 Pandemic

Simple item page
dc.contributor.authorLai, Shengjieen
dc.contributor.authorRuktanonchai, Nick W.en
dc.contributor.authorCarioli, Alessandraen
dc.contributor.authorRuktanonchai, Corrine W.en
dc.contributor.authorFloyd, Jessica R.en
dc.contributor.authorProsper, Oliviaen
dc.contributor.authorZhang, Chien
dc.contributor.authorDu, Xiangjunen
dc.contributor.authorYang, Weizhongen
dc.contributor.authorTatem, Andrew J.en
dc.date.accessioned2022-04-15T15:00:10Zen
dc.date.available2022-04-15T15:00:10Zen
dc.date.issued2021-07en
dc.description.abstractTravel restrictions and physical distancing have been implemented across the world to mitigate the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, but studies are needed to understand their effectiveness across regions and time. Based on the population mobility metrics derived from mobile phone geolocation data across 135 countries or territories during the first wave of the pandemic in 2020, we built a metapopulation epidemiological model to measure the effect of travel and contact restrictions on containing COVID-19 outbreaks across regions. We found that if these interventions had not been deployed, the cumulative number of cases could have shown a 97-fold (interquartile range 79-116) increase, as of May 31, 2020. However, their effectiveness depended upon the timing, duration, and intensity of the interventions, with variations in case severity seen across populations, regions, and seasons. Additionally, before effective vaccines are widely available and herd immunity is achieved, our results emphasize that a certain degree of physical distancing at the relaxation of the intervention stage will likely be needed to avoid rapid resurgences and subsequent lockdowns. (C) 2021 THE AUTHORS. Published by Elsevier LTD on behalf of Chinese Academy of Engineering and Higher Education Press Limited Company.en
dc.description.notesThe authors would like to acknowledge Google and Baidu for sharing population movement data. This study was supported by the grants from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (OPP1134076, INV-024911) . Nick W. Ruktanonchai is supported by funding from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (OPP1170969) . Olivia Prosper is supported by the National Science Foundation (1816075) . Andrew J. Tatem is supported by funding from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (OPP1106427, OPP1032350, OPP1134076, and OPP1094793) , the EU Horizon (MOOD 874850) , the Clinton Health Access Initiative, the UK Department for International Development (DFID) , and the Well-come Trust (106866/Z/15/Z and 204613/Z/16/Z) .en
dc.description.sponsorshipBill & Melinda Gates FoundationBill & Melinda Gates FoundationCGIAR [OPP1134076, INV-024911, OPP1106427, OPP1032350, OPP1094793, OPP1170969]; National Science FoundationNational Science Foundation (NSF) [1816075]; EU Horizon [MOOD 874850]; Clinton Health Access Initiative; UK Department for International Development (DFID); Well-come TrustWellcome TrustEuropean Commission [106866/Z/15/Z, 204613/Z/16/Z]en
dc.description.versionPublished versionen
dc.format.mimetypeapplication/pdfen
dc.identifier.doihttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.eng.2021.03.017en
dc.identifier.eissn2096-0026en
dc.identifier.issn2095-8099en
dc.identifier.issue7en
dc.identifier.pmid33972889en
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10919/109674en
dc.identifier.volume7en
dc.language.isoenen
dc.rightsCreative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 Internationalen
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/en
dc.subjectCOVID-19en
dc.subjectPandemicen
dc.subjectPopulation mobilityen
dc.subjectTravel restrictionen
dc.subjectPhysical distancingen
dc.titleAssessing the Effect of Global Travel and Contact Restrictions on Mitigating the COVID-19 Pandemicen
dc.title.serialEngineeringen
dc.typeArticle - Refereeden
dc.type.dcmitypeTexten

Files

Original bundle
Now showing 1 - 1 of 1
Thumbnail Image
Name:
1-s2.0-S2095809921001983-main.pdf
Size:
1.82 MB
Format:
Adobe Portable Document Format
Description:
Published version
Download

Collections

Scholarly Works, Population Health Sciences
Destination Area: Global Systems Science (GSS)