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Assessing the impact of coordinated COVID-19 exit strategies across Europe

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dc.contributor.authorRuktanonchai, Nick W.en
dc.contributor.authorFloyd, J. R.en
dc.contributor.authorLai, S.en
dc.contributor.authorRuktanonchai, Corrine W.en
dc.contributor.authorSadilek, Adamen
dc.contributor.authorRente-Lourenco, P.en
dc.contributor.authorBen, X.en
dc.contributor.authorCarioli, A.en
dc.contributor.authorGwinn, J.en
dc.contributor.authorSteele, J. E.en
dc.contributor.authorProsper, Olivia F.en
dc.contributor.authorSchneider, A.en
dc.contributor.authorOplinger, A.en
dc.contributor.authorEastham, Paulen
dc.contributor.authorTatem, A. J.en
dc.contributor.departmentPopulation Health Sciencesen
dc.date.accessioned2020-12-08T14:10:33Zen
dc.date.available2020-12-08T14:10:33Zen
dc.date.issued2020-09-18en
dc.description.abstractAs rates of new coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases decline across Europe owing to nonpharmaceutical interventions such as social distancing policies and lockdown measures, countries require guidance on how to ease restrictions while minimizing the risk of resurgent outbreaks. We use mobility and case data to quantify how coordinated exit strategies could delay continental resurgence and limit community transmission of COVID-19. We find that a resurgent continental epidemic could occur as many as 5 weeks earlier when well-connected countries with stringent existing interventions end their interventions prematurely. Further, we find that appropriate coordination can greatly improve the likelihood of eliminating community transmission throughout Europe. In particular, synchronizing intermittent lockdowns across Europe means that half as many lockdown periods would be required to end continent-wide community transmission.en
dc.description.sponsorshipWellcome TrustWellcome Trust Funding Source: Medlineen
dc.format.mimetypeapplication/pdfen
dc.identifier.doihttps://doi.org/10.1126/science.abc5096en
dc.identifier.eissn1095-9203en
dc.identifier.issn0036-8075en
dc.identifier.issue6510en
dc.identifier.pmid32680881en
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10919/101043en
dc.identifier.volume369en
dc.language.isoenen
dc.rightsCreative Commons Attribution 4.0 Internationalen
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/en
dc.titleAssessing the impact of coordinated COVID-19 exit strategies across Europeen
dc.title.serialScienceen
dc.typeArticle - Refereeden
dc.type.dcmitypeTexten
dc.type.dcmitypeStillImageen

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Scholarly Works, Population Health Sciences
Destination Area: Global Systems Science (GSS)