Statistical Modeling and Predictions Based on Field Data and Dynamic Covariates

Abstract

Reliability analysis plays an important role in keeping manufacturers in a competitive position. It can be applied in many areas such as warranty predictions, maintenance scheduling, spare parts provisioning, and risk assessment. This dissertation focuses on statistical modeling and predictions based on lifetime data, degradation data, and recurrent event data. The datasets used in this dissertation come from the field, and have complicated structures. The dissertation consists of three main chapters, in addition to Chapter 1 which is the introduction chapter, and Chapter 5 which is the general conclusion chapter. Chapter 2 consists of the traditional time-to-failure data analysis. We propose a statistical method to address the failure data from an appliance used at home with the consideration of retirement times and delayed reporting time. We also develop a prediction method based on the proposed model. Using the information of retirement-time distribution and delayed reporting time, the predictions are more accurate and useful in the decision making. In Chapter 3, we introduce a nonlinear mixed-effects general path model to incorporate dynamic covariates into degradation data analysis. Dynamic covariates include time-varying environmental variables and usage condition. The shapes of the effect functions of covariates may be constrained to be, for example, monotonically increasing (i.e., higher temperature is likely to cause more damage). Incorporating dynamic covariates with shape restrictions is challenging. A modified alternative algorithm and the corresponding prediction method are proposed. In Chapter 4, we introduce a multi-level trend-renewal process (MTRP) model to describe component-level events in multi-level repairable systems. In particular, we consider two-level repairable systems in which events can occur at the subsystem level, or the component (within the subsystem) level. The main goal is to develop a method for estimation of model parameters and a procedure for prediction of the future replacement events at component level with the consideration of the effects from the subsystem replacement events. To explain unit-to-unit variability, time-dependent covariates as well as random effects are introduced into the heterogeneous MTRP model (HMTRP). A Metropolis-within-Gibbs algorithm is used to estimate the unknown parameters in the HMTRP model. The proposed method is illustrated by a simulated dataset.