A hydro-economic analysis of end-of-century climate projections on agricultural land and water use, production, and revenues in the U.S. Northern Rockies and Great Plains

Simple item page
dc.contributor.authorLauffenburger, Zachary H.en
dc.contributor.authorManeta, Marco P.en
dc.contributor.authorCobourn, Kelly M.en
dc.contributor.authorJencso, Kelseyen
dc.contributor.authorChaffin, Brianen
dc.contributor.authorCrockett, Annaen
dc.contributor.authorMaxwell, Bruceen
dc.contributor.authorKimball, John S.en
dc.coverage.countryUnited Statesen
dc.coverage.stateMontanaen
dc.date.accessioned2022-10-24T13:32:19Zen
dc.date.available2022-10-24T13:32:19Zen
dc.date.issued2022-08en
dc.description.abstractStudy region,Montana, U.S.A. Study focus Creating adaptation plans for projected imbalances in the western U.S. agricultural water demand-supply system are difficult given uncertainty in climate projections. It is critical to understand the uncertainties and vulnerabilities of the regional agricultural system and hydrologic impacts of climate change adaptation. We applied a stochastic, integrated hydro-economic model that simulates land and water allocations to analyse Montana farmer adaptations to a range of projected climate conditions and the response of the hydrologic system to those adaptations. Satellite observations of crop types, productivity, water use, and land allocation were used for model calibration. A suite of climate models was employed to quantify end-of-century impacts on streamflows, water and land use, production, and net revenues.New hydrological insights for the region Simulations showed summer streamflows were influenced by a state-wide 18.2% increase in agricultural water use. Decreased summer water availability with increased demand could have far reaching impacts downstream. Land use for irrigated crops increased 1.6%, while rainfed crops decreased 6.5%, implying state-level decrease in planted area. Even with increased land and water use for irrigated crops, production decreased 0.5%, while rainfed production decreased 2.7%. Corresponding losses in net revenues totaled 1.5% and 7.2% for irrigated and rainfed crops, respectively.Results highlight vulnerabilities of semi-arid agricultural regions and can aid water managers in sustaining agriculture in these regions.en
dc.description.notesThis work was conducted at the University of Montana with support from the following grants: USDA-NIFA [2016 -67026-25067] , NASA EPSCoR [80NSSC18M0025] , and MITRE Cropland Climate [1160380] . Zachary H. Lauffenburger acknowledges support from the University of Montana BRIDGES program through funding from the National Science Foundation [DGE-1633831, OIA-1920938 and OIA-1738857] ; and the Montana Water Center through funding from the USGS 104b Water Resources Research program.en
dc.description.sponsorshipNASA EPSCoR [USDA-NIFA [2016 -67026-25067]]; MITRE Cropland Climate [80NSSC18M0025]; University of Montana BRIDGES program through funding from the National Science Foundation [1160380]; Montana Water Center through funding from the USGS 104b Water Resources Research program [DGE-1633831, OIA-1920938, OIA-1738857]en
dc.description.versionPublished versionen
dc.format.mimetypeapplication/pdfen
dc.identifier.doihttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2022.101127en
dc.identifier.eissn2214-5818en
dc.identifier.other101127en
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10919/112259en
dc.identifier.volume42en
dc.language.isoenen
dc.publisherElsevieren
dc.rightsCreative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 Internationalen
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/en
dc.subjectWater managementen
dc.subjectIrrigated agricultureen
dc.subjectRainfed agricultureen
dc.subjectClimate variabilityen
dc.subjectEconomic variabilityen
dc.subjectRemote Sensingen
dc.titleA hydro-economic analysis of end-of-century climate projections on agricultural land and water use, production, and revenues in the U.S. Northern Rockies and Great Plainsen
dc.title.serialJournal of Hydrology-Regional Studiesen
dc.typeArticle - Refereeden
dc.type.dcmitypeTexten

Files

Original bundle
Now showing 1 - 1 of 1
Thumbnail Image
Name:
1-s2.0-S2214581822001409-main.pdf
Size:
16.58 MB
Format:
Adobe Portable Document Format
Description:
Published version
Download

Collections

Scholarly Works, Forest Resources and Environmental Conservation