Trade routes and plague transmission in pre-industrial Europe

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dc.contributor.authorYue, Ricci P. H.en
dc.contributor.authorLee, Harry F.en
dc.contributor.authorWu, Connor Y. H.en
dc.date.accessioned2019-01-03T15:49:23Zen
dc.date.available2019-01-03T15:49:23Zen
dc.date.issued2017-10-11en
dc.description.abstractNumerous historical works have mentioned that trade routes were to blame for the spread of plague in European history, yet this relationship has never been tested by quantitative evidence. Here, we resolve the hypothetical role of trade routes through statistical analysis on the geo-referenced major trade routes in the early modern period and the 6,656 geo-referenced plague outbreak records in AD1347-1760. Ordinary Least Square (OLS) estimation results show that major trade routes played a dominant role in spreading plague in pre-industrial Europe. Furthermore, the negative correlation between plague outbreaks and their distance from major trade ports indicates the absence of a permanent plague focus in the inland areas of Europe. Major trade routes decided the major plague outbreak hotspots, while navigable rivers determined the geographic pattern of sporadic plague cases. A case study in Germany indicates that plague penetrated further into Europe through the local trade route network. Based on our findings, we propose the mechanism of plague transmission in historical Europe, which is imperative in demonstrating how pandemics were spread in recent human history.en
dc.description.notesThis research was supported by the Hui Oi-Chow Trust Fund (201502172003 and 201602172006) and Research Grants Council of The Government of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region of the People's Republic of China (HKU745113H and 17610715).en
dc.description.sponsorshipHui Oi-Chow Trust Fund [201502172003, 201602172006]; Research Grants Council of The Government of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region of the People's Republic of China [HKU745113H, 17610715]en
dc.format.extent10en
dc.format.mimetypeapplication/pdfen
dc.identifier.doihttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-13481-2en
dc.identifier.issn2045-2322en
dc.identifier.other12973en
dc.identifier.pmid29021541en
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10919/86587en
dc.identifier.volume7en
dc.language.isoenen
dc.publisherSpringer Natureen
dc.rightsCreative Commons Attribution 4.0 Internationalen
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/en
dc.subjectyersinia-pestisen
dc.subjectmedieval englanden
dc.subjecthistoryen
dc.subjectclimateen
dc.subjectdrivenen
dc.subjectpopulationsen
dc.subjectnavigationen
dc.subjectdynamicsen
dc.subjectrodentsen
dc.subjectspreaden
dc.titleTrade routes and plague transmission in pre-industrial Europeen
dc.title.serialScientific Reportsen
dc.typeArticle - Refereeden
dc.type.dcmitypeTexten

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