Air Transportation Modeling to Evaluate Airport Runway Infrastructure and Supersonic Transport Demand

Technological challenges must be objectively and rigorously studied through simulation and modeling with the transition to more advanced air transportation systems. This dissertation addresses two relevant problems in air transportation: airport runway infrastructure evaluation and the prediction of worldwide demand for future supersonic aircraft. Both topics aim to improve air transportation mobility, which benefits society and contributes to economic growth. The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) Advisory Circular (AC) 150/5325-4B contains the current method of estimating runway length requirements at small airports. With the introduction and significant growth of new-generation aircraft operations, the aircraft group approach and the oversimplification of several design variables described in the AC are problematic. This dissertation developed a series of modules to address these problems. These modules are integrated into the Small Aircraft Runway Length Analysis Tool (SARLAT), a stand-alone computer program used by airport designers. The latest version of SARLAT incorporates 67 individual aircraft performance characteristics based on a robust data processing, consolidation, and validation workflow. A conservative regression-based model has been developed to account for non-zero runway gradients and different runway surface conditions. A comparison between the FAA AC and SARLAT indicates that the current design methods are conservative for new-generation corporate jets but fall short for modern piston and turboprop aircraft. The models developed include aircraft stage length and payload-range analysis to assist airport designers and improve decision-making. The stage length analysis model uses Traffic Flow Management System (TFMS) data to estimate the cumulative distribution distances flown by individual aircraft. Using a time-step numerical simulation, the payload-range analysis developed a series of MATLAB functions to quantify the trade-offs between the aircraft's useful load and mission range. Another model developed in the dissertation and integrated into SARLAT determines the critical aircraft operating at the airport. All federally-funded projects require this process as part of the Airport Improvement Program (AIP). The models developed in the dissertation lead to more accurate and cost-effective estimates of runway length designs. The desire for supersonic transport was revived recently with advancements in aeronautical technologies and worldwide economic growth. Recent studies have developed various open-loop systems to assess worldwide demand and fleet size of future supersonic aircraft designs, assuming a fixed percentage of business passengers willing to switch to supersonic travel (i.e., switch rate). However, these studies overlooked the strong causality between supersonic transport airfare, the cost of the aircraft, and the market size for an assumed switch rate. To address this important causal gap, this dissertation develops a four-discipline coupled system, the Low Boom Systems Analysis Model Version 2 (LBSAM2). This system captures the dynamics between passenger preferences, fleet assignment, aircraft development cost, and aircraft operational economics to reach an equilibrium point. The passenger preference model quantifies the differences between supersonic and subsonic travel by introducing a "Value of Comfort" (VOC) concept to account for comfort loss due to seat pitch reductions. The fleet assignment model finds the minimum number of aircraft required to satisfy worldwide supersonic demand, which is subject to several constraints, including aircraft routes, airport curfews, aircraft utilization, and aircraft maintenance requirements. The aircraft development and life cycle cost models consider total aircraft production, technical specifications, and various operating and maintenance costs to derive a Cost per Passenger Nautical Mile (CPM) for each concept of supersonic aircraft. The integrated LBSAM2 shows that low-boom aircraft designs could attract 28% more business travelers worldwide than Mach cut-off designs (i.e., supersonic aircraft must slow down while flying overland to avoid excessive sonic booms over populated areas). Higher passenger demand for low-boom aircraft increases aircraft production leading to lower unit airframe cost, which achieves parity with the Mach cut-off design. This dissertation conducted a sensitivity analysis to investigate the effect of jet fuel prices on the market potential based on realistic and optimistic assumptions for airport emissions, noise, and landing fees. The estimated number of aircraft required and annual passengers are sensitive to fuel prices and operational factors. The potential market for a 50-passenger low-boom supersonic design ranges between 315 and 719 in 2040, depending on assumptions and jet fuel price. Based on a forecast of $5/gallon Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) fuel price in 2040, LBSAM2 indicates that the low-boom design is not economically viable with only a worldwide projected demand of 1.24 million passengers. The models developed in this dissertation advance the state of knowledge in air transportation engineering. First, the dissertation develops an integrated method to predict runway length requirements at small airports. The models developed include detailed aircraft performance models for 67 individual aircraft with correction factors for runway grade and runway surfaces. Other models developed estimate aircraft payload-range diagrams, historical stage length analysis, and an automated critical aircraft determination to obtain a final recommended runway length. These functions have been integrated into the SARLAT tool - a stand-alone and user-friendly computer program. SARLAT provides information for airport designers and planners to streamline runway length design and improve the decision-making process in evaluating runway extension projects. This dissertation developed passenger preference and optimization network fleet analysis modules to predict supersonic aircraft demand. The passenger preference model quantifies time-saving benefits and comfort loss between the subsonic and supersonic flights. A fleet assignment model has been developed to minimize the number of aircraft under aircraft routes, airport curfews, maximum daily aircraft utilization, and passenger demand constraints. Considering realistic operational constraints, LABSAM2 enables a quantitative comparison for system-level trade-off studies between aircraft weight, range, and ground noise from the sonic boom. Passenger mobility is a central focus of this dissertation. Enhancing passenger mobility not only meets the needs of air travelers but also stimulates economic growth by generating additional job opportunities. The development of SARLAT offers an accurate and cost-effective solution for determining runway length requirements at small airports, thereby improving their accessibility. Enhanced airport accessibility brings socio-economic benefits to surrounding communities. In addition, the dissertation developed a set of modules to predict worldwide supersonic passenger demand. Advancing passenger mobility through supersonic designs could foster socio-economic benefits by significantly reducing intercontinental travel time and expanding business opportunities for companies worldwide.