Optimization of Multi-Reservoir Management Rules Subject to Climate and Demand Change in the Potomac River Basin

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dc.contributor.authorStagge, James Howarden
dc.contributor.committeechairMoglen, Glenn E.en
dc.contributor.committeememberGrizzard, Thomas J.en
dc.contributor.committeememberGodrej, Adil N.en
dc.contributor.committeememberTriantis, Konstantinos P.en
dc.contributor.departmentCivil Engineeringen
dc.date.accessioned2017-04-06T15:43:08Zen
dc.date.adate2012-08-07en
dc.date.available2017-04-06T15:43:08Zen
dc.date.issued2012-07-16en
dc.date.rdate2016-10-18en
dc.date.sdate2012-07-24en
dc.description.abstractWater management in the Washington Metropolitan Area (WMA) is challenging because the system relies on flow in the Potomac river, which is largely uncontrolled and augmented by the Jennings-Randolph reservoir, located 9-10 days travel time upstream. Given this lag, release decisions must be made collectively by federal, state and local stakeholders amid significant uncertainty, well in advance of accurate weather forecasts with no ability to recapture excess releases. Adding to this uncertainty are predictions of more severe and sporadic rainfall over the next century, caused by anthropogenic climate change. This study aims to evaluate the potential impacts of demand and climate change on the WMA water supply system, identifying changes in system vulnerability over the next century and developing adaptation strategies designed to maximize efficiency in a nonstationary system. A daily stochastic streamflow generation model is presented, which succesfully replicates statistics of the historical streamflow record and can produce climate-adjusted daily time-series. Using these time series, a multi-objective evolutionary algorithm is used to optimize the system's operating rules given current and future conditions, considering several competing objectives.en
dc.description.degreePh. D.en
dc.identifier.otheretd-07242012-161110en
dc.identifier.sourceurlhttp://scholar.lib.vt.edu/theses/available/etd-07242012-161110/en
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10919/77144en
dc.language.isoen_USen
dc.publisherVirginia Techen
dc.rightsIn Copyrighten
dc.rights.urihttp://rightsstatements.org/vocab/InC/1.0/en
dc.subjectWater Resourcesen
dc.subjectOptimizationen
dc.subjectHydrologyen
dc.subjectPotomacen
dc.subjectClimate Changeen
dc.titleOptimization of Multi-Reservoir Management Rules Subject to Climate and Demand Change in the Potomac River Basinen
dc.typeDissertationen
dc.type.dcmitypeTexten
thesis.degree.disciplineCivil Engineeringen
thesis.degree.grantorVirginia Polytechnic Institute and State Universityen
thesis.degree.leveldoctoralen
thesis.degree.namePh. D.en

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