On the use of demographic models to inform amphibian conservation and management: A case study of the reticulated flatwoods salamander

Abstract

The Reticulated Flatwoods Salamander, Ambystoma bishopi, is an inhabitant of longleaf pine forests in the southeastern United States. Historically distributed across southern Alabama, Georgia, and the Florida panhandle west of the Apalachicola-Flint Rivers, the range of this species has been drastically reduced. It is currently listed as federally endangered under the Endangered Species Act (ESA). Population viability analyses (PVAs) represent a key component of many recovery plans for threatened and endangered species. Here we use 10 years of mark recapture data collected from two breeding populations of A. bishopi to construct a demographic model that can be used to evaluate future extinction risk. In chapter one, we quantify population sizes through time, and estimate the impact of annual variability in numbers on genetic viability. This species exists in small (< 500) breeding populations and exhibit annual fluctuations in abundance characteristic of pond-breeding amphibians. In chapter 2, we adopt a modified version of the von Bertalanffy equation to construct size-at-age curves for A. bishopi that include the metamorphic transition. Individuals exhibit rapid growth in the larval stage such that they emerge as metamorphs at 60% of their final body size. In chapter 3, we employ a Cormack-Jolly-Seber model, modified to include continuous covariates, to generate size-dependent survival curves. Survival of A bishopi exhibits dramatic annual and seasonal variability, but is always positively correlated with body size. Lastly, in chapter 4, we combine the elements of all previous chapters to construct an Integral Projection Model (IPM). Given the prevalence of complete recruitment failure in these populations, and their relatively small size, extinction probabilities under a business-as-usual model were high. Increasing the frequency of successful recruitment drastically reduces extinction risk; however, adult survival exerts the greatest influence on long-term population growth. To assure the recovery of A. bishopi, management must consider all elements of the life-history when allocating resources and effort. More generally, both aquatic and terrestrial habitats must be protected for amphibian conservation to be effective, making them ideal candidates for 'umbrella species' status. Amphibian conservation would also benefit from an increase in systematic, long-term data collection.