Modeling Temperature Effects on Vector-Borne Disease Dynamics
| dc.contributor.author | El Moustaid, Fadoua | en |
| dc.contributor.committeechair | Hawley, Dana M. | en |
| dc.contributor.committeechair | Johnson, Leah R. | en |
| dc.contributor.committeemember | Paulson, Sally L. | en |
| dc.contributor.committeemember | Childs, Lauren M. | en |
| dc.contributor.department | Biological Sciences | en |
| dc.date.accessioned | 2021-03-03T07:00:27Z | en |
| dc.date.available | 2021-03-03T07:00:27Z | en |
| dc.date.issued | 2019-09-09 | en |
| dc.description.abstract | Vector-borne diseases (VBDs) cause significant harm to humans, plants, and animals worldwide. For instance, VBDs are very difficult to manage, as they are governed by complex interactions. VBD transmission depends on the pathogen itself, vector-host movement, and environmental conditions. Mosquito-borne diseases are a perfect example of how all these factors contribute to changes in VBD dynamics. Although vectors are highly sensitive to climate, modeling studies tend to ignore climate effects. Here, I am interested in the arthropod small vectors that are sensitive to climate factors such as temperature, precipitation, and drought. In particular, I am looking at the effect of temperature on vector traits for two VBDs, namely, dengue, caused by a virus that infects humans and bluetongue disease, caused by a virus that infects ruminants. First, I collect data on mosquito traits' response to temperature changes, this includes adult traits as well as juvenile traits. Next, I use these traits to model mosquito density, and then I incorporate the density into our mathematical models to investigate the effect it has on the basic reproductive ratio R0, a measure of how contagious the disease is. I use R0 to determine disease risk. For dengue, my results show that using mosquito life stage traits response to temperature improves our vector density approximation and disease risk estimates. For bluetongue, I use midge traits response to temperature to show that the suitable temperature for bluetongue risk is between 21.5 °C and 30.7 °C. These results can inform future control and prevention strategies. | en |
| dc.description.abstractgeneral | Infectious diseases are a type of illness that occurs when microorganisms spread between hosts. Some infectious diseases are directly transmitted and some require indirect transmission such as vector-borne diseases (VBDs). Each VBD requires the presence of a vector for the disease to be transmitted. For example, dengue that puts 40% of the world population at risk, requires mosquitoes to transmit the disease between humans. My research aims to investigate how the main climate factor, temperature, influences the spread of VBDs. I develop mathematical and statistical models that explain the effect of temperature on vector traits of a mosquito-borne disease (dengue) and a midge-borne disease (bluetongue) and investigate modeling formulas to improve our estimates for dengue mosquito densities. My results can be used to inform future prevention and control strategies. | en |
| dc.description.degree | Doctor of Philosophy | en |
| dc.format.medium | ETD | en |
| dc.identifier.other | vt_gsexam:22041 | en |
| dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/10919/102579 | en |
| dc.publisher | Virginia Tech | en |
| dc.rights | In Copyright | en |
| dc.rights.uri | http://rightsstatements.org/vocab/InC/1.0/ | en |
| dc.subject | Temperature | en |
| dc.subject | vector-borne diseases | en |
| dc.subject | mathematical modeling | en |
| dc.subject | mosquito density | en |
| dc.subject | dengue | en |
| dc.subject | bluetongue | en |
| dc.title | Modeling Temperature Effects on Vector-Borne Disease Dynamics | en |
| dc.type | Dissertation | en |
| thesis.degree.discipline | Biological Sciences | en |
| thesis.degree.grantor | Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University | en |
| thesis.degree.level | doctoral | en |
| thesis.degree.name | Doctor of Philosophy | en |