Probabilistic Models for Military Kill Chains

Abstract

Military kill chains are the sequence of events, tasks, or functions that must occur to successfully accomplish a mission. As the Department of Defense moves towards Combined Joint All-Domain Command and Control, which will require the coordination of multiple networked assets with the ability to share data and information, kill chains must evolve into kill webs with multiple paths to achieve a successful mission outcome. Mathematical frameworks for kill webs provide the basis for addressing the complexity of this system-of-systems analysis. A mathematical framework for kill chains and kill webs would provide a military decision maker a structure for assessing several key aspects to mission planning including the probability of success, alternative chains, and parts of the chain that are likely to fail. However, to the best of our knowledge, a generalized and flexible mathematical formulation for kill chains in military operations does not exist. This study proposes four probabilistic models for kill chains that can later be adapted to kill webs. For each of the proposed models, events in the kill chain are modeled as Bernoulli random variables. This extensible modeling scaffold allows flexibility in constructing the probability of success for each event and is compatible with Monte Carlo simulations and hierarchical Bayesian formulations. The probabilistic models can be used to calculate the probability of a successful kill chain and to perform uncertainty quantification. The models are demonstrated on the Find–Fix–Track–Target–Engage–Assess kill chain. In addition to the mathematical framework, the MIMIK (Mission Illustration and Modeling Interface for Kill webs) software package has been developed and publicly released to support the design and analysis of kill webs.