Jema'ah Islamiyah: Explaining the Evolution of the Terrorist Network in Indonesia from 2002 to 2010

Abstract

This dissertation investigates the conditions and mechanisms through which terrorist networks evolve in response to targeted elimination strategies, and to what extent such strategies contribute to their eventual decline. Focusing on the Jemaah Islamiyah terror network in Indonesia between 2000 and 2010, the study examines how organizational adaptation and decline occur as consequences of leadership decapitation. It employs a theory-driven, explaining-outcome process tracing approach to evaluate three theoretical pathways involving leadership decapitation, organizational survival, and the leadership dilemma. The analysis reveals that no single theoretical framework sufficiently accounts for all dimensions of network evolution, even when it adequately establishes a minimalist cause-and-outcome relationship. By reflecting on the theoretical and methodological limitations of this research, the findings underscore the need for more refined hypotheses on organizational survival following decapitation—developed through diverse theoretical perspectives and supported by more generalizable, methodologically sophisticated approaches