Untangling the changing impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions and vaccination on European COVID-19 trajectories

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dc.contributor.authorGe, Yongen
dc.contributor.authorZhang, Wen-Binen
dc.contributor.authorWu, Xilinen
dc.contributor.authorRuktanonchai, Corrine W.en
dc.contributor.authorLiu, Haiyanen
dc.contributor.authorWang, Jianghaoen
dc.contributor.authorSong, Yongzeen
dc.contributor.authorLiu, Mengxiaoen
dc.contributor.authorYan, Weien
dc.contributor.authorYang, Juanen
dc.contributor.authorCleary, Eimearen
dc.contributor.authorQader, Sarchil H.en
dc.contributor.authorAtuhaire, Fatumahen
dc.contributor.authorRuktanonchai, Nick W.en
dc.contributor.authorTatem, Andrew J.en
dc.contributor.authorLai, Shengjieen
dc.date.accessioned2022-12-13T16:03:20Zen
dc.date.available2022-12-13T16:03:20Zen
dc.date.issued2022-06en
dc.description.abstractNon-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) and vaccination are two fundamental approaches for mitigating the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. However, the real-world impact of NPIs versus vaccination, or a combination of both, on COVID-19 remains uncertain. To address this, we built a Bayesian inference model to assess the changing effect of NPIs and vaccination on reducing COVID-19 transmission, based on a large-scale dataset including epidemiological parameters, virus variants, vaccines, and climate factors in Europe from August 2020 to October 2021. We found that (1) the combined effect of NPIs and vaccination resulted in a 53% (95% confidence interval: 42-62%) reduction in reproduction number by October 2021, whereas NPIs and vaccination reduced the transmission by 35% and 38%, respectively; (2) compared with vaccination, the change of NPI effect was less sensitive to emerging variants; (3) the relative effect of NPIs declined 12% from May 2021 due to a lower stringency and the introduction of vaccination strategies. Our results demonstrate that NPIs were complementary to vaccination in an effort to reduce COVID-19 transmission, and the relaxation of NPIs might depend on vaccination rates, control targets, and vaccine effectiveness concerning extant and emerging variants. Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) and COVID-19 vaccination have been implemented concurrently, making their relative effects difficult to measure. Here, the authors show that effects of NPIs reduced as vaccine coverage increased, but that NPIs could still be important in the context of more transmissible variants.en
dc.description.notesWe thank the researchers who generated and publicly shared the epidemiological, intervention and sequencing data used in this research. This study was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation for Distinguished Young Scholars of China (No. 41725006), the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (INV-024911), and the National Institutes of Health (R01AI160780). YG is supported by funding from the National Natural Science Foundation for Distinguished Young Scholars of China (No. 41725006). AJT is supported by funding from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (OPP1106427, OPP1032350, OPP1134076, OPP1094793), the Clinton Health Access Initiative, the UK Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (UK-FCDO), the Wellcome Trust (106866/Z/15/Z, 204613/Z/16/Z), the National Institutes of Health (R01AI160780), and the EU H2020 (MOOD 874850). SL is supported by funding from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (INV-024911) and the National Natural Science Foundation of China (81773498). JY is supported by funding from the Shanghai Municipal Science and Technology Major Project (ZD2021CY001). The funder of the study had no role in study design, data collection, data analysis, data interpretation, or writing of the report. The corresponding authors had full access to all the data in the study and had final responsibility for the decision to submit for publication. The views expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not represent any official policy.en
dc.description.sponsorshipNational Natural Science Foundation for Distinguished Young Scholars of China [41725006]; Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation [INV-024911, OPP1106427, OPP1032350, OPP1134076, OPP1094793]; National Institutes of Health [R01AI160780]; Clinton Health Access Initiative; UK Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (UK-FCDO); Wellcome Trust [106866/Z/15/Z, 204613/Z/16/Z]; EU H2020 [MOOD 874850]; National Natural Science Foundation of China [81773498]; Shanghai Municipal Science and Technology Major Project [ZD2021CY001]en
dc.description.versionPublished versionen
dc.format.mimetypeapplication/pdfen
dc.identifier.doihttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-30897-1en
dc.identifier.eissn2041-1723en
dc.identifier.issue1en
dc.identifier.other3106en
dc.identifier.pmid35661759en
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10919/112870en
dc.identifier.volume13en
dc.language.isoenen
dc.publisherNature Portfolioen
dc.rightsCreative Commons Attribution 4.0 Internationalen
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/en
dc.subjectreinfectionen
dc.subjecthealthen
dc.titleUntangling the changing impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions and vaccination on European COVID-19 trajectoriesen
dc.title.serialNature Communicationsen
dc.typeArticle - Refereeden
dc.type.dcmitypeTexten

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