A missing behavioural feedback in COVID-19 models is the key to several puzzles

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dc.contributor.authorRahmandad, Hazhiren
dc.contributor.authorXu, Ranen
dc.contributor.authorGhaffarzadegan, Naviden
dc.date.accessioned2023-01-30T16:27:24Zen
dc.date.available2023-01-30T16:27:24Zen
dc.date.issued2022-10-25en
dc.date.updated2023-01-28T15:44:39Zen
dc.description.abstractSummary: ⇒ Human actions have played a key role in shaping the COVID-19 pandemic patterns. While theoretically recognised, existing models of epidemics often do not endogenously capture many of the feedback loops connecting people’s choices and epidemic dynamics, for example, adoption of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) by individuals and governments shapes disease transmission, which in turn alters perceived risks and future NPI adoption. ⇒ Such ‘risk-driven response’ feedback is central to explaining important empirical puzzles of the COVID-19 pandemic, including the convergence of reproduction number to 1 across nations, multiple waves of pandemic, mortality variance and limited trade-off between economic and health outcomes in adoption of NPIs. Capturing that feedback also enhances pandemic forecasting and offers distinct and more effective vaccination strategies. ⇒ Much remains to be explored in modelling diverse behavioural feedbacks, from endogenous testing and vaccination choices to the building of infrastructure for various responses. Integrating those with epidemiological models offers promising new discoveries and enhanced policy design.en
dc.description.versionPublished versionen
dc.format.mimetypeapplication/pdfen
dc.identifier.doihttps://doi.org/10.1136/bmjgh-2022-010463en
dc.identifier.eissn2059-7908en
dc.identifier.issn2059-7908en
dc.identifier.issue10en
dc.identifier.orcidGhaffarzadegan, Navid [0000-0003-3632-8588]en
dc.identifier.otherPMC9606737en
dc.identifier.otherbmjgh-2022-010463 (PII)en
dc.identifier.pmid36283733en
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10919/113558en
dc.identifier.volume7en
dc.language.isoenen
dc.publisherBMJen
dc.relation.urihttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36283733en
dc.rightsCreative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 Internationalen
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/en
dc.subjectCOVID-19en
dc.subjectEpidemiologyen
dc.subjectHealth policiesen
dc.subjectPublic Healthen
dc.subject.meshHumansen
dc.subject.meshFeedbacken
dc.subject.meshCOVID-19en
dc.subject.meshSARS-CoV-2en
dc.titleA missing behavioural feedback in COVID-19 models is the key to several puzzlesen
dc.title.serialBMJ Global Healthen
dc.typeArticle - Refereeden
dc.type.dcmitypeTexten
dc.type.otherNoteen
dc.type.otherJournalen
dcterms.dateAccepted2022-09-22en
pubs.organisational-group/Virginia Techen
pubs.organisational-group/Virginia Tech/Engineeringen
pubs.organisational-group/Virginia Tech/Engineering/Industrial and Systems Engineeringen
pubs.organisational-group/Virginia Tech/All T&R Facultyen
pubs.organisational-group/Virginia Tech/Engineering/COE T&R Facultyen
pubs.organisational-group/Virginia Tech/Report testen

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