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Nitrogen deposition and climate change effects on tree species composition and ecosystem services for a forest cohort

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dc.contributor.authorVan Houtven, George L.en
dc.contributor.authorPhelan, Jennifer N.en
dc.contributor.authorClark, Christopher M.en
dc.contributor.authorSabo, Robert D.en
dc.contributor.authorBuckley, Johnen
dc.contributor.authorThomas, R. Quinnen
dc.contributor.authorHorn, Kevin J.en
dc.contributor.authorLeDuc, Stephen D.en
dc.contributor.departmentForest Resources and Environmental Conservationen
dc.date.accessioned2019-08-26T14:19:51Zen
dc.date.available2019-08-26T14:19:51Zen
dc.date.issued2019-05en
dc.description.abstractThe composition of forests in the northeastern United States and the ecosystem services they provide to future generations will depend on several factors. In this paper, we isolate the effects of two environmental drivers, nitrogen (N) deposition and climate (temperature and precipitation) change, through an analysis of a single cohort of 24 dominant tree species. We assembled a tree database using data from U.S. Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis monitoring plots. Applying observed species-specific growth and survival responses, we simulated how forest stands in a 19-state study area would change from 2005 to 2100 under 12 different future N deposition-climate scenarios. We then estimated implications for three selected forest ecosystem services: merchantable timber, aboveground carbon sequestration, and tree diversity. Total tree biomass (for 24 species combined) was positively associated with both increased N deposition and temperatures; however, due to differences in the direction and magnitude of species-specific responses, forest composition varied across scenarios. For example, red maple (Acer rubrum) trees gained biomass under scenarios with more N deposition and more climate change, whereas biomass of yellow birch (Betula alleghaniensis) and red pine (Pinus resinosa) was negatively affected. Projections for ecosystem services also varied across scenarios. Carbon sequestration, which is positively associated with biomass accumulation, increased with N deposition and increasing climate change. Total timber values also increased with overall biomass; however, scenarios with increasing climate change tended to favor species with lower merchantable value, whereas more N deposition favored species with higher merchantable value. Tree species diversity was projected to decrease with greater changes in climate (warmer temperatures), especially in the northwestern, central, and southeastern portions of the study area. In contrast, the effects of N deposition on diversity varied greatly in magnitude and direction across the study area. This study highlights species-specific and regional effects of N deposition and climate change in northeastern U.S. forests, which can inform management decision for air quality and forests in the region, as well as climate policy. It also provides a foundation for future studies that may incorporate other important factors such as multiple cohorts, sulfur deposition, insects, and diseases.en
dc.description.notesWe would like to thank Alan Talhelm and Christine Davis for their thoughtful review and comments on the draft manuscript, as well as Jamie Cajka, Marion Deerhake, Justine Allpress, Lindsay Aramayo, and Christina Van Winkle for their key contributions to the project. Financial support for this research was provided by the US Environmental Protection Agency under Contract EP-C-11-036 and Contract EP-W-11-029. The views expressed in this manuscript are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the views or policies of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.en
dc.description.sponsorshipUS Environmental Protection Agency [EP-C-11-036, EP-W-11-029]en
dc.format.mimetypeapplication/pdfen
dc.identifier.doihttps://doi.org/10.1002/ecm.1345en
dc.identifier.eissn1557-7015en
dc.identifier.issn0012-9615en
dc.identifier.issue2en
dc.identifier.otherUNSP e01345en
dc.identifier.pmid31217625en
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10919/93260en
dc.identifier.volume89en
dc.language.isoenen
dc.rightsCreative Commons Attribution 4.0 Internationalen
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/en
dc.subjectAcer rubrumen
dc.subjectAcer saccharumen
dc.subjectcarbon sequestrationen
dc.subjectcommunity compositionen
dc.subjectcritical loadsen
dc.subjectforestsen
dc.subjectLiriodendron tulipiferaen
dc.subjectPrunus serotinaen
dc.subjectQuercus rubraen
dc.titleNitrogen deposition and climate change effects on tree species composition and ecosystem services for a forest cohorten
dc.title.serialEcological Monographsen
dc.typeArticle - Refereeden
dc.type.dcmitypeTexten
dc.type.dcmitypeStillImageen

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Scholarly Works, Forest Resources and Environmental Conservation
Destination Area: Global Systems Science (GSS)