Application of Bayesian robust design model to assess the impacts of a hurricane on shorebird demography

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dc.contributor.authorGibson, Danielen
dc.contributor.authorRiecke, Thomas V.en
dc.contributor.authorKeyes, Timen
dc.contributor.authorDepkin, Chrisen
dc.contributor.authorFraser, James D.en
dc.contributor.authorCatlin, Daniel H.en
dc.contributor.departmentFish and Wildlife Conservationen
dc.date.accessioned2019-05-03T18:52:42Zen
dc.date.available2019-05-03T18:52:42Zen
dc.date.issued2018-08en
dc.description.abstractThe increasing use of Bayesian inference in population demography requires rapid advancements in modeling frameworks to approach the rigor and flexibility of the current suite of maximum-likelihood models. We developed an unbiased, Jolly-Seber robust design (JSRD) model that is both accessible and generalizable in a Bayesian hierarchical multistate framework. We integrated band and age-classification data to estimate site entry, temporary emigration, and apparent survival rates, as well as estimate age-class specific abundances. The complete model parameterization is provided in the Appendix S1, as well as tools for simulating capture histories and an assessment of model fit. We applied this model to determine whether these demographic processes in non-breeding population of American oystercatchers (Haematopus palliatus) were affected by a major hurricane event (Hurricane Matthew) in coastal Georgia. The JSRD model was demonstrably unbiased at relatively small sample sizes, and the majority of parameters were identifiable in the fully saturated model parameterization. In the model application, we found that Hurricane Matthew temporarily altered local population abundances of American oystercatchers through increased movements of individuals into and out of the observable population, but mortality rates were largely unaffected. Together, our results suggest that American oystercatchers were largely able to avoid the immediate demographic consequences (i.e., reduced survival) of Hurricane Matthew. Integrating age and band ratios from survey data allowed for more descriptive and potentially less biased estimates of age-specific abundance, relative to estimates generated solely from either mark-resight or survey data.en
dc.description.notesFunding for this study was provided by the National Fish and Wildlife Foundation, Georgia Department of Natural Resources, and Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University. We thank two anonymous reviewers for their comments on an earlier draft of this manuscript. We thank the Virginia Tech's Open Access Subvention Fund for providing funds for publication costs. We also thank G. DiRenzo for providing useful code.en
dc.description.sponsorshipNational Fish and Wildlife Foundationen
dc.description.sponsorshipGeorgia Department of Natural Resourcesen
dc.description.sponsorshipVirginia Polytechnic Institute and State Universityen
dc.description.sponsorshipVirginia Tech's Open Access Subvention Funden
dc.format.mimetypeapplication/pdfen
dc.identifier.doihttps://doi.org/10.1002/ecs2.2334en
dc.identifier.eissn2150-8925en
dc.identifier.issue8en
dc.identifier.othere02334en
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10919/89354en
dc.identifier.volume9en
dc.language.isoenen
dc.publisherEcological Society of Americaen
dc.rightsCreative Commons Attribution 4.0 Internationalen
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/en
dc.subjectage ratiosen
dc.subjectAmerican oystercatchersen
dc.subjectBayesian population modelingen
dc.subjecthurricanesen
dc.subjectJolly-Seber robust designen
dc.subjectnon-breeding demographyen
dc.subjecttemporary emigrationen
dc.titleApplication of Bayesian robust design model to assess the impacts of a hurricane on shorebird demographyen
dc.title.serialEcosphereen
dc.typeArticle - Refereeden
dc.type.dcmitypeTexten

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