Coupling a land surface model with a hydrodynamic model for regional flood risk assessment due to climate change: Application to the Susquehanna River near Harrisburg, Pennsylvania

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dc.contributor.authorModi, Parthkumar A.en
dc.contributor.authorCzuba, Jonathan A.en
dc.contributor.authorEaston, Zachary M.en
dc.coverage.countryUnited Statesen
dc.coverage.statePennsylvaniaen
dc.date.accessioned2021-12-10T15:26:05Zen
dc.date.available2021-12-10T15:26:05Zen
dc.date.issued2021-11-19en
dc.description.abstractAn increase in heavy precipitation associated with climate change has exacerbated flooding in the Eastern U.S. To assess regional flood risk with changing climatic conditions, we demonstrate the application of a novel hydrologic modeling framework that integrates climate projections with a coupled Noah-MP land surface model and a two-dimensional HEC-RAS hydrodynamic model. We employ this framework along a 41 km reach of the Susquehanna River near Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, where recent flood damages exceeded $2 billion (2011 Irene and Lee floods). Historical and future 30-year and 100-year peak-discharge estimates were compared to assess how flood risk might be altered due to climate change. Results indicate that precipitation increases from climate change do not always lead to increases in flood risk, because interplay of hydrological components in the watershed, which are considered by Noah-MP, largely controls flooding severity. However, climate change is expected to increase the severity of extreme events; if a 50-year flood (the recurrence interval of Tropical Storm Lee) occurred toward the end of the 21st century in the worst-case emission scenario, then flood volume would increase by 40% and flood extent by 15%, due to an increase in soil moisture from a wetter overall climate.en
dc.description.notesThe authors would like to thank Mark Roland from USGS and Craig Thomas from USACE for sharing the data from the USGS Scientific Investigation Report (2014-5046) and CISL at NCAR for supercomputing facilities. They also thank Editor Paul Samuels, Associate Editor (anonymous), and three anonymous reviewers for comments that helped the authors better generalize and improve the overall quality of this work. We thank Virginia Tech's Open Access Subvention Fund for providing financial support to publish this article.en
dc.description.sponsorshipVirginia Tech's Open Access Subvention Funden
dc.description.versionPublished versionen
dc.format.mimetypeapplication/pdfen
dc.identifier.doihttps://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.12763en
dc.identifier.issn1753-318Xen
dc.identifier.othere12763en
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10919/106923en
dc.language.isoenen
dc.rightsCreative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 Internationalen
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/en
dc.subjectclimate changeen
dc.subjectflood depthen
dc.subjectflood inundationen
dc.subjectflood risken
dc.subjectglobal climate modelsen
dc.subjectHEC-RASen
dc.subjectland surface modelen
dc.titleCoupling a land surface model with a hydrodynamic model for regional flood risk assessment due to climate change: Application to the Susquehanna River near Harrisburg, Pennsylvaniaen
dc.title.serialJournal of Flood Risk Managementen
dc.typeArticle - Refereeden
dc.type.dcmitypeTexten

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