Global subsidence of river deltas

Abstract

River deltas sustain dense human populations, major economic centres and vital ecosystems worldwide1,2. Rising sea levels and subsiding land threaten the sustainability of these valuable landscapes with relative sea-level rise and associated flood, land loss and salinization hazards1-3. Despite these risks, vulnerability assessments are impeded by the lack of contemporary, high-resolution, delta-wide subsidence observations4. Here we present spatially variable surface-elevation changes across 40 global deltas using interferometric synthetic aperture radar. Using this dataset, we quantify delta surface-elevation loss and show the prevalence and severity of subsidence in river deltas worldwide. Our analysis of three key anthropogenic drivers of delta elevation changes shows that groundwater storage has the strongest relative influence on vertical land motion in 10 of the 40 deltas. The other deltas are either influenced by multiple drivers or dominated by sediment flux or urban expansion. Furthermore, we find that contemporary subsidence surpasses absolute (geocentric) sea-level rise as the dominant driver of relative sea-level rise for most deltas over the twenty-first century. These findings suggest the need for targeted interventions addressing subsidence as an immediate and localized challenge, in parallel with broader efforts to mitigate and adapt to climate change-driven global sea-level rise.