Academic Profiles of Science Students: An Analysis of Longitudinal Data on Virginia Students

In recent decades, United States public school education has moved toward standards-based curricula. However, performance on standardized tests may not be representative of subject literacy or workforce preparedness. This misalignment may be particularly true in the sciences, where low science literacy and gender-related workforce shortfalls are evident. This study was an exploration of how well standardized test scores and other academic metrics reflected progression to a science major, by gender. This exploratory study used longitudinal data from the Virginia Department of Education, prepared by the Virginia Longitudinal Data System, for students who graduated from Virginia public schools from 2004-2016 (N=1,089,389). Students' standardized assessment scores, science course grades, demographics, and post-secondary major were analyzed using correlation analysis, logistic regression, principal component analysis, and hypothesis testing. Overall, 9% of high school completers enrolled in a post-secondary science major, with approximately half of those students attending 4-year schools. Seventy percent of science majors were female; females were most prevalent in health-related majors and least prevalent in physical sciences. Logistic regression identified the following factors significantly related to enrolling in a post-secondary science major: gender, high school science grades, and the high school's percent of students who majored in science. A student's status as economically disadvantaged or an underrepresented minority was significantly related to enrolling in a 2-year science major. In comparisons among academic metrics, standardized test scores and science grades were uncorrelated, and science grades differed significantly among demographic subgroups. Overall, demographic and school-level factors were more closely related to majoring in science than were academic factors. For both genders and for biological, physical, and health sciences, the percent of students majoring in science doubled from 2005-2015. Standardized test scores and course grades measured different aspects of learning, and higher science grades were related to majoring in science. However, the designation of "science major" is so broad as to be uninformative in a research context; more specificity would be needed to develop academic profiles. From these findings, one can conclude that demographic and cultural factors – rather than academic factors – were more closely related to whether students pursued a science pathway.