Hydrologic and Hydraulic Modeling for Flood Risk Assessment: A Case Study of Periyar River Basin, Kerala, India

Abstract

Floods pose a substantial threat to both life and property, with their frequency and intensity escalating due to climate change. A comprehensive hydrological and hydraulic modeling approach is essential for understanding flood dynamics and developing effective future flood risk management strategies. The accuracy of Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) directly impacts the reliability of hydrologic simulations. This study focuses on evaluating the efficacy of two DEMs in hydrological modeling, specifically investigating their potential for daily discharge simulation in the Periyar River Basin, Kerala, India. Recognizing the limitations of the Hydrologic Engineering Center’s Hydrologic Modeling System (HEC-HMS) with the available dataset, a novel hybrid model was developed by integrating HEC-HMS outputs with an Artificial Neural Network (ANN). While precipitation, lagged precipitation, and lagged discharge served as inputs to the ANN, the hybrid model also incorporated HEC-HMS simulations as an additional input. The results demonstrated improved performance of the hybrid model in simulating daily discharge. The Hydrologic Engineering Center’s River Analysis System (HEC-RAS) was employed to predict flood inundation areas for both historical and future scenarios in the Aluva region of the Periyar River Basin, which was severely impacted during the 2018 Kerala floods. By integrating hydrological and hydraulic modeling approaches, this study aims to enhance flood prediction accuracy and contribute to the development of effective flood mitigation strategies.