Navigable rivers facilitated the spread and recurrence of plague in pre-industrial Europe

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dc.contributor.authorYue, Ricci P. H.en
dc.contributor.authorLee, Harry F.en
dc.contributor.authorWu, Connor Y. H.en
dc.date.accessioned2019-01-22T18:54:43Zen
dc.date.available2019-01-22T18:54:43Zen
dc.date.issued2016-10-10en
dc.description.abstractInfectious diseases have become a rising challenge to mankind in a globalizing world. Yet, little is known about the inland transmission of infectious diseases in history. In this study, we based on the spatiotemporal information of 5559 plague (Yersinia pestis) outbreaks in Europe and its neighboring regions in AD1347-1760 to statistically examine the connection between navigable rivers and plague outbreak. Our results showed that 95.5% of plague happened within 10 km proximity of navigable rivers. Besides, the count of plague outbreak was positively correlated with the width of river and negatively correlated with the distance between city and river. This association remained robust in different regression model specifications. An increase of 100 m in the width of river and a shortening of 1 km distance between city and river resulted in 9 and 0.96 more plague outbreaks in our study period, respectively. Such relationship shows a declining trend over our study period due to the expansion of city and technological advancement in overland transportation. This study elucidates the key role of navigable river in the dissemination of plague in historical Europe.en
dc.description.notesThis research was supported by the Hui Oi-Chow Trust Fund (201502172003 and 201602172006) and the Research Grants Council of The Government of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region of the People's Republic of China (HKU745113H and 17610715).en
dc.description.sponsorshipHui Oi-Chow Trust Fund [201502172003, 201602172006]; Research Grants Council of The Government of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region of the People's Republic of China [HKU745113H, 17610715]en
dc.format.extent8en
dc.format.mimetypeapplication/pdfen
dc.identifier.doihttps://doi.org/10.1038/srep34867en
dc.identifier.issn2045-2322en
dc.identifier.other34867en
dc.identifier.pmid27721393en
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10919/86832en
dc.identifier.volume6en
dc.language.isoenen
dc.publisherSpringer Natureen
dc.rightsCreative Commons Attribution 4.0 Internationalen
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/en
dc.subjectclimate-changeen
dc.subjectinfectious-diseasesen
dc.subjecthuman healthen
dc.subjectnavigationen
dc.titleNavigable rivers facilitated the spread and recurrence of plague in pre-industrial Europeen
dc.title.serialScientific Reportsen
dc.typeArticle - Refereeden
dc.type.dcmitypeTexten

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