An analysis of the decision-making systems within the national wildlife refuge system

Abstract

A methodology is presented for the analysis of the decision making process and inputs needed in wildland resource agencies. The concepts and methods have general application; their particular use is demonstrated for the National Wildlife Refuge System. Decisions were identified by inspecting agency reports and publications, Inputs were identified through questionnaires to agency personnel. Both decisions and inputs were verified through interviews. A descriptive classification system for decisions was developed and used. Analysis of the classified decisions provided a flexible method for selecting MIS inputs, provided insights into the functioning of the agency, indicated the decisions for which a MIS can efficiently supply inputs, and helped determine organizational priorities for MIS development. Hierarchal analysis of the classified decisions revealed that two administrative levels of the Refuge System made over 75% of the decisions for which a MIS is most appropriate, establishing a priority for MIS development. The classical decision theory types of certainty, risk, and uncertainty were discussed. During the interviews an attempt was made to identify input sources, decision types, and algorithms currently being used. Similar types of decisions used common information sources more frequently than did dissimilar decisions. Most of the decisions identified were categorized as decision making under uncertainty. The algorithms of classical decision theory were not being used. Seven algorithms and guidelines for their selection were suggested for use in the types of decisions identified in this study. The overlap of information use was analyzed to determine the relative value of the inputs identified. Analytical techniques included frequency of use, grouping, and decision-information-priority (DIP) ranked analyses. Use of inputs ranged from 119 to one. Numbers of inputs required by a decision ranged from 63 to nine. The exclusion of input items that demonstrated tendencies to be used together could reduce the effectiveness of the remaining inputs in a MIS. Inputs were added to a system called a solution. Although the frequency solution was slightly more efficient, the DIP solution is considered superior because it weights the values of the inputs relative to the importance of the decisions. Because costs for inputs were not known the input solution lists that were developed will have to be judged by experienced decision makers and the items excluded that are impossible or too expensive (based on a marginal cost criterion) to obtain. Decisions are only of value as they affect the system that produced the decision, Information is only of value if it causes the decision maker to select a different course of action. Inefficiencies in the use of information, processes, personnel, funds and a number of other factors promote the increase of entropy in decision systems. Entropy can be minimized by providing needed information, decision rules, performance feedback, explicit organizational objectives, reduced information transfers, and constraints specifying quality and quantity of information transferred.