Facing natural hazards: uncertain and intertemporal elements of choosing shore protection along the Great Lakes

Simple item page
dc.contributor.authorO'Grady, Kevin Lawrenceen
dc.contributor.committeechairShabman, Leonard A.en
dc.contributor.committeememberBatie, Sandra S.en
dc.contributor.committeememberMoser, Daviden
dc.contributor.committeememberPease, Jamesen
dc.contributor.committeememberHauenstein, Neil M.A.en
dc.contributor.departmentAgricultural Economicsen
dc.date.accessioned2014-03-14T21:14:02Zen
dc.date.adate2008-06-06en
dc.date.available2014-03-14T21:14:02Zen
dc.date.issued1992en
dc.date.rdate2008-06-06en
dc.date.sdate2008-06-06en
dc.description.abstractOne tool of the economic planner is Benefit Cost Analysis (BCA). This model's accuracy in describing human behavior has been criticized, particularly for uncertain and intertemporal choices. To the extent this holds, the model will be inaccurate in assessing benefits of shoreline protection measures and will provide reduced insight into policy choices. From a review of economic, psychology and geography literature, three points of criticism are: - when faced with losses, individuals tend not to be averse to risk, - when faced with low probability hazards, individuals tend to ignore the hazard altogether (truncate low probability), - when faced with choices over time, individuals have different rates at which they trade off benefits now versus later. Typically, applications of BCA do not account for these observations. The main objective of the study was to determine whether these criticisms are supported, and to draw conclusions regarding government policy for the flooding and erosion hazards on the Lakes. A Benefit Cost model was formulated to describe the individual shoreline property owner's behavior with respect to undertaking structural measures to mitigate flooding and/or erosion. To test the model, property owners on Lakes Erie, Ontario and Michigan were surveyed by mail. Experimental questions, focussing on the intertemporal and uncertain nature of the hazard protection choice were developed. The econometric analysis suggested that: - individuals varied in their time preference rate, - the probability of low chance events was truncated by many respondents, - on average respondents were not risk averse, and - the above phenomena helped explain the choice to take protective action. Using a market rate for discounting in the BCA can provide inaccurate benefit estimates. Observed time preference rates may provide a better measure. Subsidized hazard insurance has been suggested to encourage self protection. Disregard for low probabilities, coupled with a lack of risk aversion, suggest such a program would not be successful. Subsidized loans for shore protection may be unsuccessful. Many people displayed a time preference rate above the market loan rate, yet they did not borrow. Information programs may be useful in promoting a better understanding of the hazards which may be faced by residents.en
dc.description.degreePh. D.en
dc.format.extentxii, 202 leavesen
dc.format.mediumBTDen
dc.format.mimetypeapplication/pdfen
dc.identifier.otheretd-06062008-165904en
dc.identifier.sourceurlhttp://scholar.lib.vt.edu/theses/available/etd-06062008-165904/en
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10919/38362en
dc.language.isoenen
dc.publisherVirginia Techen
dc.relation.haspartLD5655.V856_1992.O372.pdfen
dc.relation.isformatofOCLC# 26091143en
dc.rightsIn Copyrighten
dc.rights.urihttp://rightsstatements.org/vocab/InC/1.0/en
dc.subject.lccLD5655.V856 1992.O372en
dc.subject.lcshFlood control -- Great Lakes Region (North America) -- Decision makingen
dc.subject.lcshShore protection -- Great Lakes Region (North America) -- Decision makingen
dc.titleFacing natural hazards: uncertain and intertemporal elements of choosing shore protection along the Great Lakesen
dc.typeDissertationen
dc.type.dcmitypeTexten
thesis.degree.disciplineAgricultural Economicsen
thesis.degree.grantorVirginia Polytechnic Institute and State Universityen
thesis.degree.leveldoctoralen
thesis.degree.namePh. D.en

Files

Original bundle
Now showing 1 - 1 of 1
Thumbnail Image
Name:
LD5655.V856_1992.O372.pdf
Size:
7.47 MB
Format:
Adobe Portable Document Format
Description:
Download

Collections

Doctoral Dissertations