Browsing by Author "Leuschner, William A."

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    The 1972 Virginia Outdoor Recreation Inventory
    Leuschner, William A.; Groves, David L.; Bolger, William T.; Stokes, Gerald L. (Virginia Tech. Division of Forestry and Wildlife Resources, 1974)
    The Virginia Commission of Outdoor Recreation coordinated the inventorying of outdoor recreation facilities in the state between June and December, 1972. The inventory is an integral part of the Virginia Outdoors Plan Information System. Its primary purpose was to provide data for the Commission to formulate and write the statewide comprehensive outdoor recreation plan. However, the intended use of these data was much broader. It was envisaged that they would be useful for other planning activities, such as those conducted by federal and state agencies or the 22 Planning District Commissions in Virginia, as well as for various research activities, special studies, and teaching. The purpose of this publication is threefold. The first is to encourage further use of the data by informing the public of its existence and the specific variables contained therein. The second is to present a limited but comprehensive set of data which can be used to answer general inquiries and which will save interested parties the trouble of writing to obtain it. Finally, we wish to inform the public of the availability of the data in other forms which may better suit individual needs but which would be too numerous to publish in this bulletin.
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    Aids for Unit Planning on the Appalachian National Forests
    Burkhart, Harold E.; Leuschner, William A.; Stuck, R. Dean; Porter, John R.; Reynolds, Marion R. Jr. (Virginia Tech. Division of Forestry and Wildlife Resources, 1976)
    This report summarizes the results of studies conducted in response to a cooperative agreement between the Southern Region, U.S. Forest Service and the Department of Forestry and Forest Products, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University. The objective of the agreement was to improve National Forest management planning techniques. The agreement covered the period July 1, 1973 to June 30, 1975. Literature citations are given for those who desire additional detail.
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    A decisionmaking framework for assessing atmospheric deposition impacts on regional forest inventory
    Liu, Chiun-Ming (Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, 1988)
    A decisionmaking framework was developed to assess atmospheric deposition impacts on regional softwood inventory in Virginia. This decision making framework consists of three segments: a forest inventory projection model, a timber production function, and a timber consumption model. The Timber Resource Inventory Model (TRIM) was used to project future forest inventory, given initial inventory data, yield information, and harvest request. The timber production function allows the estimation of the individual effects of input variables on stand growth and yield. The timber consumption model was linked with TRIM to simulate the interactions between timber removals and inventory levels. Algorithm analysis, sensitivity analysis, and an a priori analysis were used to examine the feasibility of TRIM for projecting atmospheric deposition impacts on inventory. Modification of growth and harvest decision variables in TRIM allows this impact estimation. Schumacher's yield model was modified to develop the timber production function according to goodness-of-fit, minimal collinearity, and biological rationale. Crown length was used as a surrogate of a. biological factor to reflect atmospheric deposition impacts on stand growth and yield. The small variance inflation factor allows the crown length elasticity to serve as a measure of the quantitative effects on the yield table. A system of predictor equations was added to the yield equation for simulating stand dynamics. A consumption function approach was used to develop the timber removals model. The BoxCox transformation, the stepwise regression procedure, and standard error were used to select the functional form, predictor variables, and estimates for the timber removals model. This removals model was linked with TRIM for simulating the interactions between removals and inventory levels for Forest Industry and Other Private. The existing forecasts of removals based on Forest Service projections were used for impact estimation for all ownerships. This decisionmaking framework was applied to the softwood inventory data in Virginia to demonstrate the impact estimation. Sensitivity analysis showed that the percentage reduction of inventory and removals is directly related to the crown length reduction. The larger the crown length reduction, the greater the percentage reduction of the inventory. The percentage reduction of yield tables due to the crown length reduction is slightly less than the overall percentage reduction of the inventory but is slightly greater than the overall percentage reduction of removals. The quantitative information on atmospheric deposition impacts on crown variables is a key to the impact estimation for inventory and removals. Also, this decision making framework can be used to measure some silvicultural practice effects on regional inventory.
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    Economic aspects of Christmas tree production and marketing in Virginia
    Sellers, William A. (Virginia Tech, 1974)
    An economic description and analysis of Christmas tree production was made for the benefit of Virginia's farm and other landowners. The purpose of the study was to aid in determining if investment in Christmas trees was likely to be economically successful, and to improve plantation management on existing plantations. Basic production and marketing data was collected from the state's growers, and used to describe and recommend certain operations commonly involved in the production process. Evaluation of the operations was based primarily upon financial considerations, with emphasis on cultural effectiveness whenever possible or appropriate. A computer analysis program was also developed which, given a set of input data, calculates the present net worth of the investment and break-even price per tree using a discount rate of 12 percent. In addition, the internal rate of return, and yearly and accumulated cash flows are presented. It was found that if the operations recommended in the study were carried out on a five-acre plantation over a production cycle of nine years that the internal rate of return could be expected to range from 9.4 percent for a high-cost operation and $1000 per acre land cost, to 39.8 percent for a low-cost operation and a $100 per acre land value. The primary financial disadvantage of Christmas tree production was found to be the large negative cash flow incurred up to the last year of the cycle. The computer program developed in this study has been stored on the VPI & SU Extension Division's Computerized Management Network so that it will be readily accessible to prospective and current Christmas tree growers.
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    Economics of Producing an Acre of White Pine Christmas Trees
    Johnson, James E.; Leuschner, William A.; Burchinal, Frank E. (Virginia Cooperative Extension, 2005-09-01)
    This publication is an example of costs and returns that could be expected from growing one acre of white pine Christmas trees in Virginia. This survey included a wide variety of growers, from small, part-time operations to large commercial enterprises. The costs and returns used in this report are typical of Virginia conditions, but are unlikely to ideally match any single operation.
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    The Economics of Producing and Marketing Christmas Trees on Small Plantations in Virginia
    Leuschner, William A.; Sellers, William A. (Virginia Tech. Division of Forestry and Wildlife Resources, 1975)
    The purpose of this report is to assist potential and existing Christmas tree growers in making better informed decisions on investments in small Christmas tree plantations, We seek to accomplish this by presenting cost and revenue data and an analysis system to assess probable financial returns. Potential growers should find the entire report of interest although existing growers may want to concentrate their attention on the sections containing cost and revenue data and the discussion of financial analyses.
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    Evaluating risk-adjusted discount rates in forest investment decision making
    Cathcart, James F. (Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, 1989)
    One approach to risk in investment evaluation is to discount expected cash flows with a single risk-adjusted discount rate. When emphasis is placed on total (as opposed to systematic) risk there are no a priori criteria guiding the proper selection of' the risk-adjusted discount rate. It is unlikely that a single rate will capture the risk differences between the investment alternatives considered. This study evaluates risk-adjusted discount rates in the context of stand-level investment decisions. The investment setting is a non-diversified risk-averse individual facing mutually exclusive opportunities in forage hay, pine plantation, and mixed pine-hardwood management. These opportunities contrast differences in cash flow, objectives, capital requirement, and presumably risk. Risk-adjusted discount rate bias was defined as the tendency to incorrectly identify a suboptimal alternative as being the most preferred. The correct ranking and valuation of alternatives was conducted using an expected utility approach to risk. The scope of the analysis was to assess to what degree, if any, does risk-adjusted discount rate bias occur in an actual stand-level investment setting. Therefore, the numerical results in the analysis pertain to a case study example and are not general enough to make definitive conclusions about the overall riskiness of forestry and hay investments. The potential for risk-adjusted discount rate bias was demonstrated in a hypothetical investment context. However, when risk was empirically estimated through simulation, risk-adjusted discount rate bias was less pronounced in the ranking of alternatives. Instead, the influential parameter was the risk-free discount rate. Based on an objective simulation of risk, which only accounted for historical variability in yields and prices, the estimated correct risk premiums in the discount rate were imperceptibly small, especially in the context of measurement error in specifying the risk-free discount rate. The implication is not that risk can be ignored, but that treating risk via the risk-adjusted discount rate approach is inadequate. More general approaches to risk are recommended, implying much research is still needed in this area.
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    Growing and Marketing Christmas Trees in Virginia
    Vodak, M.C.; Leuschner, William A.; Watson, A.E. (Virginia Tech. Division of Forestry and Wildlife Resources, 1984)
    The purpose of this report is to assist potential and existing Christmas tree growers in making investment decisions about small Christmas tree plantations by presenting cost and revenue data and analysis of financial returns. Potential growers should find the entire report of interest although existing growers may want to concentrate their attention on the sections containing cost and revenue data and the discussion of financial analyses. This report updates Leuschner and Sellers (1975).
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    Land use planning with multiobjective programming: a model for forest development in the hills of Nepal
    Shakya, Keshab M. (Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, 1987)
    A land use planning model was developed for long term planning of renewable natural resources development in the Hills of Nepal. Considerable emphasis was placed upon identifying land use planning problems for the prevalent limited market economy and subsistence farming system. A multiobjective programming model was chosen for modeling the land use planning problem. The model accommodated five objectives: namely, increasing food, fodder, and fuelwood production and decreasing soil loss and cost. A weighting technique within the multiobjective framework was developed to facilitate land use planning as a socio-political decision making process. The application of the model was demonstrated with data from Phewatal watershed. The model generated technically efficient alternative land use plans. It also generated information on time flow of achievement levels of the objectives and their trade-offs in each alternative plan. Very few alternative plans were generated when the periodic growth rates on achievement levels of the objectives were tightly constrained. The model also provided information on periodic deficit and surplus achievements of the objectives. This information provided the guidelines for evaluating the plans. The model provided a useful mathematical structure for analyzing land use planning as an integrated planning process coordinating multi-sectoral objectives in time and space. A foundation has been laid for constructing comprehensive land use planning models in subsistence farming economy in developing nations. The model was run on a commercially available software package and a portable personal computer. Therefore, the model can be applied in the field situation in many developing countries.
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    Productivity analysis of private and socialized agriculture in Ethiopia
    Mirotchie, Mesfin (Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, 1989)
    The system of cereal grain production in Ethiopia has been stratified into private, cooperative and state farms since the 1975 land reform. The private farms are being gradually replaced by the cooperative farms while the state farms are receiving increased technical and budgetary assistance by the Ethiopian government. lt is, however, not clear if these policies are consistent with the technical characteristics of these three modes of production. This study, therefore, evaluated technical efficiency, impacts of known and latent input factors, and returns to scale parameters for each farm type. Sample data were collected from Ethiopia on five cereal crops, namely, barley, com, sorghum, teff and wheat and several input factors, including labor, land, oxen, traditional farm implements, tractors, machinery services, modern yield·increasing inputs, livestock, education and rainfall over 77 awrajjas for the 1980-1986 production period. A covariance regression model was applied with these data to determine an appropriate functional form between the Cobb-Douglas and translog production functions. The Translog functional form was selected for the analysis on the basis of statistical tests. Results of the analysis suggest that the producer cooperatives collectively appear to have a potential to generate increased gross income per hectare at a declining rate with respect to an equiproportionate increase in all inputs, except land, upon an increasing average cost of production per unit of cereal output. The private and state farms appear to be operating with a close to fixed proportions type of production technology with a constant average cost of production per unit of cereal output per hectare. Moreover, the range of substitutability between input factors tends towards a complementary relationship as the institutional transformations and management techniques of the cereal producing farms shift from the traditional to a more advanced and centrally managed state mode of production. Partial income elasticity parameters suggest that (a) the private sector’s gross income per hectare is most responsive to traditional hand tools, fertilizer, labor, human capital at primary level of education, and rain in August and September; (b) the cooperative sector’s gross income per hectare is most responsive to the use of tractors and September rain; whereas (c) gross income per hectare of the state farms is most responsive to the use of traditional labor, machinery services and rain in June and August. Thus, Ethiopia’s agricultural income production per hectare is likely to be revitalized by: (a) qualitative changes in the traditional inputs, water management, and introduction of modem technical inputs such as fertilizer and farmer education in the private sector; (b) increased traditional labor employment, improved management of water, machinery and modem yield-increasing inputs on the state farms; and (c) a better usage of tractors and collaborative input factors, improved water management, and a substantial increase in capital investment to achieve full employment of the seemingly redundant labor and oxen input factors on the cooperative farms. It seems unlikely that the producer cooperatives will achieve the goal of maximum cereal output per hectare with the most prevalent composition of the redundant traditional input factors which contribute insignificantly at the margin without a major change in the current production techniques and structural policies of the sector.
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    A Qualitative Analysis of The Southern Pine Beetle's Wildlife Impact
    Maine, John D.; Leuschner, William A.; Tipton, Alan R. (Virginia Tech. Division of Forestry and Wildlife Resources, 1980)
    Wildlife's social value has long been known. Early attempts to place dollar values on wildlife were crude (Stains and Barkalow, 1951; Collins, 1959) and often incomprehensible. For example, Collins found that each deer killed by bow hunters was worth $5,280 based on hunter expenditures. However, these early researchers were aware that it is important to consider wildlife's social value in forest management decisions. These include pest management dee is ions generally and Southern Pine Beetle ( Dendroctonus frontal is Zimm) (SPB) management decisions specifically. Wildlife has three basic values in the Southeast: recreational, aesthetic, and scientific. The recreational value is realized by the more than 30 million people who spend billions of dollars each year pursuing fish and game species. These people partially support the sporting arms and ammunition, camping equipment, campground, and restaurant industries.
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    Timber supply in dynamic general equilibrium
    McDill, Marc Eric (Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, 1989)
    Given the neoclassical assumptions of optimizing economic agents, perfect information, perfect competition, and productive efficiency, timber supply is a dynamic process. Different discrete-time dynamic timber supply models and their solution methods are compared and their common elements derived. A continuous-time model is derived, but not solved. The discrete-time timber supply model is then incorporated into a dynamic multi-sector model and a dynamic general equilibrium model. In the multi-sector model, all household's utility functions are aggregated into a single community utility function which is maximized subject to the technology of the economy. The technology for the forest sector is the same as in the discrete-time dynamic timber supply models. Wood is treated as an intermediate input into the production of consumer goods. The technology of the consumer goods sectors is based on the technology used in computable general equilibrium models. The optimal steady state problem for this model is discussed, and the solution for an example problem is presented. Disaggregating the utility function is necessary for modeling true general equilibrium. This greatly complicates the problem of Ending numerical solutions, but enriches the model considerably. The formulation of the general equilibrium model as an optimization problem is described, but proved rather difficult to solve. The optimal steady state problem can be solved using an algorithm developed by Scarf (1967) for finding fixed points of continuous functions. The fixed-point approach provides a reliable solution method and appears to have more potential for modeling departures from perfect competition than the optimization approach. The equivalence of the two approaches is discussed.
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    A timber supply model and analysis for southwest Virginia
    Clements, Stephen E. (Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, 1987)
    A model was developed to estimate the economic stock supply of primary wood products. Two hardwood products were recognized: logs and bolts. The supply model was used to evaluate the impacts of shifting primary product demands and increasing supply costs on delivered prices and quantities in southwest Virginia. Homogeneous supply response cells, identified from Forest Service forest survey data, were used to generate log and bolt supplies. Response cells define blocks of forest land with similar biologic, physiographic, and landowner characteristics. Yield equations estimate the volume of logs and bolts available. Harvesting and hauling costs depend on a response cell's physiographic characteristics. Stumpage owners set reservation price as a function of expected stumpage prices, future timber yields, and an alternative rate of return. Recovery cost per unit in a response cell equals the sum of harvesting and hauling costs and reservation price. The quantities of logs and bolts supplied are determined by comparing harvest revenues to recovery costs. If revenues are greater than or equal to costs in a particular response cell, then timber is harvested The demands for logs and bolts are derived from the demand for manufactured products. Log and bolt demand equations in the model were statistically estimated. For each time period, the model determines the delivered log and bolt prices which equate the quantities of logs and bolts supplied to the quantities demanded. The solution technique is iterative. The quantities demanded and supplied of logs and bolts are determined for the given delivered prices. If quantities supplied do not equal the quantities demanded, then delivered prices are adjusted, and the quantities are recalculated. Primary product supplies in southwest Virginia are price elastic because of extensive hardwood resources and relatively constant recovery costs. Expansions in primary product demands expected over the next 15 years should have little direct impact on delivered prices. Delivered prices, however, will be sensitive to production costs. These costs will rise if factor input prices, such as fuel prices, wage rates, or machinery costs, increase.