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Browsing by Author "Seth, Anji"

Now showing 1 - 18 of 18
  • Adapting to climate change in Andean ecosystems: Landscapes, capitals, and perceptions shaping rural livelihood strategies and linking knowledge systems
    Valdivia, Corinne; Seth, Anji; Gilles, Jere L.; García, Magali; Jiménez, Elizabeth; Yucra, E.; Cusicanqui, Jorge; Navia, F. (Taylor & Francis, LLC., 2010)
    In the Bolivian Altiplano, indigenous systems for dealing with weather and climate risk are failing or being lost as a result of migration, climate change, and market integration. Andean rural communities are particularly vulnerable to changing social and environmental conditions. Changing climate over the past forty years and current forecast models point to increasing temperatures and later onset of rains during the growing season. Current meteorological models are coarse grained and not well suited to the complex topology of the Andes -- so local-scale information is required for decisions. This article outlines a process for developing new local knowledge that can be used to enhance adaptive processes. (Excerpt from abstract)
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    Altiplano climate: Making sense of twenty-first century scenarios
    Seth, Anji; Thibeault, Jeanne M.; Valdivia, Corinne (2008)
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    Andean highlands: Implications of climate change
    Seth, Anji; Thibeault, Jeanne M.; García, Magali (2007)
    This presentation provides background on the SANREM CRSP project "Adapting to Change in the Andean Highlands: Practices and Strategies to Address Climate and Market Risks in Vulnerable Agro-Eco Systems" and discusses the means, variability and projections for the Altiplano climate.
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    Changes in timing of the South American Monsoon?
    Seth, Anji; Rojas, M. H.; Rauscher, S. A. (2008)
    The World Climate Research Program (WCRP) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project version 3 (CMIP3) dataset employed in this analysis of South American climate projections through the 21st century. Warm season rains associated with the South American Monsoon System (SAMS) are critical in the seasonally dry regions of Southeastern Brazil and the Bolivian Altiplano. Changes in the annual cycle of the SAMS are investigated by examining the 20th century model simulations against observations, and then evaluating differences between the projected mid (2030-2059) and late (2070-2099) 21st century climates with that of present day (1970-1999). Analysis emphasizes the annual cycle of temperature and precipitation, with an exploration of the mechanisms involved in changes including moisture transport, sea level pressure and low level winds, particularly the Andes low level jet.
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    Changing climate in the Bolivian Altiplano: CMIP3 projections for extremes of temperature and precipitation
    Thibeault, Jeanne M.; Seth, Anji; García, Magali (2008)
    This research compares projected changes in mean temperature and precipitation with projected changes in temperature and precipitation based extreme indices for the Altiplano using several global climate models from the fourth assessment report (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). It also examines how changes in the annual distribution of temperature and precipitation may result in higher frequencies of extreme events in the future.
  • Changing climate in the Bolivian Altiplano: CMIP3 projections for temperature and precipitation extremes
    Thibeault, Jeanne M.; Seth, Anji; García, Magali (American Geophysical Union, 2010)
    Due to a general dependence on rainfed agriculture, climate change and subsequent fluctuations in precipitation and temperature presents significant challenges for the Bolivian Altiplano. It is imperative that current climate models are able to accurately predict these changes. This study offers a comparison of projections derived from empirical temperature and precipitation indices of La Paz/Alto and Patacamaya from 1973-2007 and those derived from nine World Climate Research Program (WCRP) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project version 3 (CMIP3) models. Consistencies were found among increasing trends in warm nights, dry days, precipitation, precipitation intensity, and temperature. Overpredictions by the models existed concerning frost days, and some observed results suggest that a longer dry season coupled with more intense but less frequent rainfall are occurring before the models had predicted. These results indicate that the models are relevant tools for the Altiplano in its adaptation to climate change and the prevention of food insecurity related to disturbances in growing seasons.
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    Climate change, markets and livelihood strategies for adaptation in vulnerable Altiplano Ecosystems
    Valdivia, Corinne; Jiménez, Elizabeth; Seth, Anji (2009)
    This presentation discusses a framework of scales and interactions, Altiplano climate trends and change, markets, livelihood strategies and perceptions of risks across the Altiplano ecosystem, uncertainty, and participatory research in adaptive capacities.
  • Climate change: Why worry?
    Seth, Anji (2006)
    This presentation reviewed the current state of knowledge related to anthropogenically forced global climate change and projections from climate model simulations performed for the IPCC fourth assessment. While the global projections consistently describe a continued and enhanced warming trend in the 21st century, the models are less consistent in their representation of South American precipitation trends in the Amazon basin and monsoon regions. In addition, a review of recent published literature related to observed climate variability and trends in the Altiplano was presented. There is clear observational evidence of an increasing temperature trend and the effects on receding glaciers in the region. With respect to variability, recent studies suggest that reduced (enhanced) rainfall in the Altiplano is associated with enhanced (reduced) westerly winds, i.e., low level winds and moisture flow from the east are related to wet conditions during the rainy season.
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    Climate variability and change in the Andean highlands
    Seth, Anji; Thibeault, Jeanne M.; García, Magali (2007)
    The Altiplano region of Bolivia and Peru is vulnerable to both climate variability and climate change. Its proximity to El Niño and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO) yields changes in the rainy season from year-to-year. In addition, the region depends on snowpack and glacial meltwater for water resources during the long dry season, which are diminishing due to global warming. As part of a larger study to understand how market forces and climate change are affecting highland agriculture, this research explores recent and future climate variability and change in the region. The observed 20th century climate and recent trends are evaluated using global gridded datasets, and station data. In addition, several global climate models employed in the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) are evaluated for the recent period. Preliminary analysis of the 21st century scenarios for the highland region are also presented.
  • CMIP3 projected changes in the annual cycle of the South American monsoon
    Seth, Anji; Rojas, M. H.; Rauscher, S. A. (2010)
    A warmer world will spur many changes in weather patterns and ecosystems. It is critical to predict these changes in order to mitigate their potential negative impacts. The South American monsoon is vulnerable to these changes and their prediction will assist farmers in this region in adapting. In this study, nine CMIP3 models (CCSM3, PCM, ECHAM5/MPI-OM, HadCM3, GFDL CM2, IPSL CM4, HadGEM1, MIROC3.2, CSIRO Mk3) are used to predict changes in onset, precipitation, and location of heaviest rainfall in the South American Monsoon System (SAMS). Despite the variance in model results, statistically significant changes in continental precipitation were revealed. They include reduced spring precipitation, movement in maximum precipitation, and displacement of the South Atlantic Anticyclone (SAAC). Further analysis is suggested to fully reveal and understand the impact of climate change on the South American Monsoon.
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    Global climate change: An introduction and results from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4)
    Seth, Anji (2007)
    This presentation gives summary of the results of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Working Group I (WG1) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4): The physical science basis for climate change. It begins with a history of the theory of global climate change, followed by the important concepts surrounding global climate change: the greenhouse effect and carbon cycle and how the climate has changed throughout the earth's history. It then discusses the IPCC's assessment reports, focusing on three factors: exponential growth, "feedbacks" in the system, and delays in the system.
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    Implications of climate change for the Andean Highlands
    Seth, Anji (2007)
    A discussion of the relationship between Altiplano rainfall and large scale circulation on sub-seasonal, interannual and longer timescales, and changes in this relationship in 21st century climate scenarios from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3).
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    Linking knowledge systems for rural livelihoods adaptation under uncertainty: Drying and warming in Andean ecosystems
    Valdivia, Corinne; Gilles, Jere L.; Seth, Anji; Thibeault, Jeanne M.; Jiménez, Elizabeth; García, Magali; Yucra, E.; Garrett, Karen A. (2009)
    The goal of our SANREM-CRSP program in the Altiplano is to conduct research that increases the adaptability to changes in climate, the environment, and markets. To do this we must link scientific knowledge about the production systems and the environment, with the local knowledge, and people's priorities. We are studying different approaches to bridge knowledge systems, and assessing their effectiveness (research interest groups, community groups, knowledge sharing events, participatory mapping of vulnerabilities and assets, co-learning and formal training). We have identified the trends in climate of the past 30 years, and at climate projections for the Northern Altiplano, along with participatory processes to downscale this knowledge to the communities by linking this to the local forecast indicators the community experts observe. This allows us to assess technologies from the perspective of the variability and uncertainty that farmers face, and will increasingly face, when it comes to deciding what, if, and when to plant, or how to reallocate their resources. We have learned that perceptions of risks and dread of hazards are high, but with differences by locality and wealth. People in a the Central Altiplano region of Bolivia, with relatively more income land and animals are more concerned with hazard events like droughts floods and frost; while in the Northern Altiplano region, with less than half the household income, smaller land size, and migration as part of their livelihood strategies, people are more concerned with the climate changing, and affecting what they can grow. In addition to involving farmers in the evaluation of research findings, members of vulnerable groups are purposely included to engage them in the discussions and plans necessary to develop adaptation strategies that will require extra-community resources to be successful. Extreme event projections from the models relate a sense of uncertainty and variability, with presentations unlike the present, with potential for more stress in access to water, and more extreme events in temperature and precipitation that affect agriculture, today the main source of livelihood of these families. Using this information we are identifying the strategies that people use to deal with these events and have identified strategies that include developing or improving the capacity of rural communities to increase value added to their products, and mechanisms to access resources to buffer shocks. We are studying the biological and physical drivers that are changing agricultural production systems, as well as the local knowledge and perceptions of farmers, the way they assess the risks of climate hazards and change (Slovic and Weber 2002). Although trust in traditional decision making tools is declining, trust in scientific knowledge is almost non-existent. In this context two-way participatory communication can enhance this trust and build knowledge that can facilitate adaptation. This requires farmers and researchers to develop a common language. Using traditional scientific research methods combined with participatory research, the project is building new knowledge base which returns to decision makers' as information about their livelihoods, their resources and market integration capacity. It seeks to build new knowledge by bridging scientific and local knowledge systems, and human agency, identifying capacities and capabilities that decision makers in the Altiplano have to be able to adapt to uncertainty. This includes agronomic trials to identify new varieties, crops, or production techniques that can buffer the new risks of changing weather patterns.
  • Making sense of 21st century climate change in the Altiplano: Observed trends and CMIP3 projections
    Seth, Anji; Thibeault, Jeanne M.; García, Magali; Valdivia, Corinne (Taylor & Francis, LLC., 2010)
    This research presents a synthesis of the first phase of regionalizing climate projections for
  • Mechanisms of summertime precipitation variability in the Bolivian Altiplano: Present and future
    Thibeault, Jeanne M.; Seth, Anji; Wang, G. (Reading, United Kingdom: Royal Meteorological Society, 2011)
    The Bolivian Altiplano is particular vulnerable to harmful effects of climate change and corresponding disturbances in precipitation patterns. In this study, CMIP3 models were analyzed according to their ability to simulate past rainfall patterns. The most accurate models were then used to make predictions regarding summertime precipitation changes. Reductions in precipitation during the summer, runoff increases,
  • The rice-wheat consortium: An institutional innovation in international agricultural research on the rice-wheat cropping systems of the Indo-Gangetic Plains (IGP)
    Seth, Anji (The Rice-Wheat Consortium of the Indo-Gangetic Plains (RWC), 2003)
    The review of the Rice-Wheat Consortium for the Indo-Gangetic Plains (RWC) was undertaken at the request of the Regional Steering Committee (RSC) of the RWC. ... The goal of the review was to determine the changes in research priorities, organization and methods that will be required for the RWC to continue to make a significant impact on the livelihoods of those employed in agriculture, especially the poor, on the sustainable management of natural resources in the IGP, and on regional food security...
  • Understanding climate change projections for the Northern Altiplano
    Seth, Anji (2009)
    Adapting to Change in the Andean Highlands: Practices and Strategies to Address Climate and Market Risks in Vulnerable Agro-ecosystems (SANREM CRSP LTRA 4) focus is to identify the consequences of climate change for one of the poorest and most vulnerable regions in the Western Hemisphere and develop adaptive capacities. The project uses a cross disciplinary and participatory approach, linking biophysical and social sciences research with local knowledge systems through participatory institutions. The presentations concentrate on some of the key findings in the context of climate change. In the biophysical sciences Anji Seth will report on Altiplano climate change projections for this century; Peter Motavalli on the mitigation and adaptation aspects of organic soil amendment practices in rural communities; and Karen Garrett on anticipating and responding to plant disease and pests risks. Finally, Valdivia and Gilles will discuss findings on strategies for enhancing the adaptive capacity of small Andean producers.
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    Understanding climate variability and change in the Altiplano
    Seth, Anji (2007)
    This presentation addresses climate variability in the climate change models for 20th and 21st centuries for the Altiplano Region. The models appear to simulate this mechanism in the present, but respond quite differently in 21st century climate. This poses a question: Is this related to