Climate change and disease at the human-wildlife interface

Abstract

Recent research has shown that climate change had and will likely continue to have impacts on biological processes, including the propagation of infectious and zoonotic diseases. Assessments of local level impacts at the human-wildlife interface are imperative for stakeholders and policy makers, and empirical review of such research is undoubtedly necessary to understand the current state of the field, gaps of knowledge, and to identify future lines of research. In that vein, this thesis focuses on the impacts of climate change on disease at the human-wildlife interface. Specifically, my thesis works to quantify the recent temporal and spatial distribution of empirical research linking climate change with changes in the burden of infectious diseases (Chapter 2). This retrospective scoping of the last five years of empirical research identified if, and to what extent, there are biases in the diseases, species, or geographic areas studied within this scientific field. My study revealed both geographic and topical biases within the scope of recent literature, with an overwhelming emphasis on vector-borne diseases in temperate areas. There was also unequal representation in publication demographics of authors and institutions with most research originating from well developed countries. As a proof-of-concept case study, my thesis provides an empirical assessment of the plausible climatic drivers of a wildlife-disease transmission risk in an understudied region (Chapter 3), which could function to fill some of the identified research gaps in Chapter 2. Therein, my work assessed the impacts of climate variation from the last century on the environmental suitability of the rabies host Desmodus rotundus (common vampire bat) in Latin America. Findings revealed that average and standard deviation of temperature were the most important drivers of D. rotundus geographic distribution according to species' records between 1901 and 2019. Nevertheless, high uncertainty was detected regarding the predictability of D. rotundus environmental suitability across the United States-Mexico border and in the Andes Mountains of Chile. The overall modeling efforts did, however, reveal a northward distributional shift of the rabies reservoir as a likely response to climate change. Together, studies contained in this thesis provide empirical, retrospective evidence that demonstrates the effects of climate change on the increased risk of disease transmission at the human-wildlife interface.