Patterns and Associations of Shoreline Erosion and Developed Land Use Change in the Lower Meghna Estuary of Bangladesh
Abstract
Population living along the coast are at risk of losing land, households, and economic resources due to the hazards of coastal erosion. Scientific research has indicated that 70% of the planet's sandy coastal environment is being impacted by coastal erosion. Due to the different characteristics of the lands in the coastal zone versus other areas, it is important to understand how the hazard of shoreline erosion contributes to subsequent land use change in affected coastal regions. This study analyzes how the level of erosion, land loss, and developed land loss performs when added with the default land use change parameters such as existing developed land proximity, proximity to forested areas, population, transportation, etc. Sample points of 1020 from 10 years and 15 years of shoreline erosion data for the lower Meghna River estuary of Southeast Bangladesh have been obtained and from there, different erosion statistics have been developed. Developed land use data has been collected from ESA's World Settlement Footprint dataset and other datasets are also collected from secondary data sources. Logistic regression modeling shows that there are verified contributions of proximity to erosion and amount of land loss with the probability of developed land use conversion in the study area. Adding the variables of environmental hazards increases the prediction accuracy by 2-3% and overall, the models are at least 85% accurate.
General Audience Abstract
Population living along the coast are at risk of losing land, households, and economic resources due to the hazards of coastal erosion. The coast of the Lower Meghna estuary in Bangladesh is a region experiencing chronic and severe shoreline erosion that causes the land to be lost to estuarine waters. This research quantifies the amount of land lost to erosion with a special focus on the amount of developed land that is lost. Developed land in this study is defined as a built-up area typically composed of buildings and roads. The research also evaluates the effects of lost land on the subsequent conversion of interior land from a non-developed to developed status. The main contribution is to quantitatively identify the association between the erosion-induced land loss to future land use conversion. Using statistical modeling and digital mapping methods, results show that loss of land is associated with the subsequent conversion of non-developed land to developed land use. In particular, conversion has a higher probability at sites that are located more distant from the eroding shoreline that also are proximal to shoreline sites with higher rates of erosion-induced land loss. These results are suggestive of a relocation process where previously lost developed land is reestablished at interior sites within five kilometers of the eroding shoreline.
Collections
- Masters Theses [21530]