Patterns and Associations of Shoreline Erosion and Developed Land Use Change in the Lower Meghna Estuary of Bangladesh

Files
TR Number
Date
2023-01-23
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
Virginia Tech
Abstract

Population living along the coast are at risk of losing land, households, and economic resources due to the hazards of coastal erosion. Scientific research has indicated that 70% of the planet's sandy coastal environment is being impacted by coastal erosion. Due to the different characteristics of the lands in the coastal zone versus other areas, it is important to understand how the hazard of shoreline erosion contributes to subsequent land use change in affected coastal regions. This study analyzes how the level of erosion, land loss, and developed land loss performs when added with the default land use change parameters such as existing developed land proximity, proximity to forested areas, population, transportation, etc. Sample points of 1020 from 10 years and 15 years of shoreline erosion data for the lower Meghna River estuary of Southeast Bangladesh have been obtained and from there, different erosion statistics have been developed. Developed land use data has been collected from ESA's World Settlement Footprint dataset and other datasets are also collected from secondary data sources. Logistic regression modeling shows that there are verified contributions of proximity to erosion and amount of land loss with the probability of developed land use conversion in the study area. Adding the variables of environmental hazards increases the prediction accuracy by 2-3% and overall, the models are at least 85% accurate.

Description
Keywords
shoreline erosion, land use change, coastal zone, logistic regression, spatial analysis, urban growth modeling
Citation
Collections