An ex ante economic impact analysis of developing low cost technologies for pyramiding useful genes from wild relatives into elite progenitors of cassava
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This study conducts an ex-ante economic impact evaluation of developing low cost technologies for pyramiding useful genes from wild relatives into elite progenitors of cassava in Nigeria, Ghana and Uganda. More specifically, it estimates the change in economic surplus generated by introducing cassava varieties with tolerance to cassava mosaic disease, green mites, whiteflies, and delayed post-harvest deterioration. It compares the economic benefits of marker-assisted selection (MAS) to conventional breeding for these traits. Results indicate that varieties developed with marker-assisted breeding that incorporate all three traits are worth US$2.89 billion in Nigeria, $854 million in Ghana, and $280 million in Uganda over 20 years. If these varieties were to be developed with tolerance to CMD and Green mites alone they would be worth US$1.49 billion in Nigeria, $675 million in Ghana, and $52 million in Uganda if developed through MAS. If developed solely by conventional breeding they would be worth about US$676 million in Nigeria, $304 million in Ghana, and $18 million in Uganda. The difference is mostly due to the faster timing of release for the varieties developed with MAS and the higher probability of success. Several sensitivity analyses were conducted and benefits for MAS range from US$1.7 billion to US$4.3 billion for all three traits depending on assumptions. In all cases, the research investment is highly profitable from a societal standpoint.
- Masters Theses