North Carolina implemented a statewide mandatory oceanfront 30-year setback on June 1, 1979. This research evaluated the effectiveness of the setback policy in the town of Nags Head in protecting private property from ocean hazards, preventing the encroachment of structures on public beaches, and minimizing public costs of inappropriately-sited development. To date, no process has been established for evaluating the effectiveness of the setback program. This research is proposed as one way to evaluate the success of oceanfront setbacks on a local basis.

The town of Nags Head, located on Bodie Island, was selected for analysis because it represents one of the most developed areas of the Outer Banks, and has witnessed significant growth over the past twenty years. Due to Bodie Island’s northeast orientation, Nags Head has experienced severe erosion in many areas, stemming in part from northeasters and other coastal storms.

The research involved collecting data on structures built since June 1, 1979 within the study area. Oceanfront setbacks from the vegetation line at the time of construction were obtained from survey measurements, and field measurements taken in January and February 1994 determined the present location of the structure relative to the vegetation line. Site-specific erosion rates were then determined and compared to the long-term rate used by the Division of Coastal Management in the delineating oceanfront setback per lot. Predictions of the time until each structure would be located within the zone of imminent collapse, as defined by FEMA, were made based on both long-term erosion rates and actual rates occurring over each structure’s lifetime. These predictions were then compared to the years remaining until each structure was 25 years old (30-year setback less the 5-year zone of imminent collapse), and determinations of setback success or failure were made on a per lot basis.

Results of the analysis yielded low setback success rates within the study area, raising doubts about the ability of long-term erosion rate setbacks to sufficiently protect oceanfront property in areas frequented by severe coastal storms. The research supports the continuation of the oceanfront setback program, but discusses policy shortcomings, suggests possible policy alternatives, and recommends topics for further research regarding oceanfront setbacks.