A Monte Carlo case study of random inputs in the stochastic model for pollution in estuaries

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Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University

Using Richard Krutchkoff and Stephen Custer's stochastic model for pollution in estuaries, a Stochastic Simulation study of random inputs of pollution particles in estuaries was made. This study investigated four types of input in each of twelve estuarial situations and examined the resulting average distributions of both the biochemical . oxygen demand and the oxygen deficit.

For two types of input, the number of input particles ranged from zero to ten and was chosen randomly from a binomial distribution and a uniform distribution. Another type of entry used an input of zero or ten particles, each with probability of .5. These three situations were compared with a constant input of five particles, which was the mean number of input particles for each of the probability-input cases.

Graphs were plotted using all four types of input for each estuarial situation. On the basis of these graphs, the study indicates that the average distributions of both pollution particles and oxygen deficit particles which result from using random inputs do not differ significantly from each other and from the average distributions obtained by using the mean input.