Forecast of Virginia coal production

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dc.contributor.authorCrabtree, Walter A.en
dc.contributor.committeechairTopuz, Ertugrulen
dc.contributor.committeememberHaycocks, Christopheren
dc.contributor.committeememberZipper, Carl E.en
dc.contributor.departmentMining Engineeringen
dc.date.accessioned2014-03-14T21:26:45Zen
dc.date.adate2009-01-10en
dc.date.available2014-03-14T21:26:45Zen
dc.date.issued1995-04-15en
dc.date.rdate2009-01-10en
dc.date.sdate2009-01-10en
dc.description.abstractThis thesis provides a model for forecasting coal production rates in southwest Virginia. A multiple linear regression model is developed for the forecasting process. The model includes six independent variables: Virginia coal price times Virginia coal mining productivity (x₁), Virginia mining company production levels (x₂), Virginia coal reserves (x₃), U.S. domestic electricity consumption (x₄), U.S. coal exports (x₅), and U.S. domestic industrial (includes coke) coal consumption (x₆). Historical values for the six variables from 1979 to 1993 were used in generating the multiple linear regression model coefficients. The model captures 86.87% of the variation in Virginia coal production over this period. The forecast from 1994 to 2010 was generated by using forecasted values for the six independent variables. The sensitivity of the model was tested by slightly changing the values of selected independent variables. The results indicate a decline in Virginia coal production to approximately 32 million tons in 2010. Under more favorable conditions, the model results indicate that the coal production levels will remain approximately steady. Under less favorable economic conditions, the model results indicate that Virginia coal production levels will be reduced by more than 50% by the year 2010. These results were also supported by a curve fitting exercise based on the work of M. King Hubbert (1969 and 1973). Hubbert states that the production of a non-renewable natural resource follows a normal or lognormal curve. The peak production level will occur when approximately have of the reserves have been mined or slightly before. Approximately 2 billion tons of coal has been mined in southwest Virginia. Current recoverable reserves are estimated at 1.5 billion tons.en
dc.description.degreeMaster of Scienceen
dc.format.extentviii, 164 leavesen
dc.format.mediumBTDen
dc.format.mimetypeapplication/pdfen
dc.identifier.otheretd-01102009-063421en
dc.identifier.sourceurlhttp://scholar.lib.vt.edu/theses/available/etd-01102009-063421/en
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10919/40564en
dc.language.isoenen
dc.publisherVirginia Techen
dc.relation.haspartLD5655.V855_1995.C733.pdfen
dc.relation.isformatofOCLC# 34353555en
dc.rightsIn Copyrighten
dc.rights.urihttp://rightsstatements.org/vocab/InC/1.0/en
dc.subjectcoalen
dc.subjectproductionen
dc.subjectforecasten
dc.subjectVirginiaen
dc.subject.lccLD5655.V855 1995.C733en
dc.titleForecast of Virginia coal productionen
dc.typeThesisen
dc.type.dcmitypeTexten
thesis.degree.disciplineMining Engineeringen
thesis.degree.grantorVirginia Polytechnic Institute and State Universityen
thesis.degree.levelmastersen
thesis.degree.nameMaster of Scienceen

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