Phylogenetic Niche Modeling

Projecting environmental niche models through time is a common goal when studying species response to climatic change. Species distribution models (SDMs) are commonly used to estimate a species' niche from observed patterns of occurrence and environmental predictors. However, a species niche is also shaped by non-environmental factors--including biotic interactions and dispersal barrier—truncating SDM estimates. Though truncated SDMs may accurately predict present-day species niche, projections through time are often biased by environmental condition change. Modeling niche in a phylogenetic framework leverages a clade's shared evolutionary history to pull species estimates closer towards phylogenetic conserved values and farther away from species specific biases. We propose a new Bayesian model of phylogenetic niche implemented in R. Under our model, species SDM parameters are transformed into biologically interpretable continuous parameters of environmental niche optimum, breadth, and tolerance evolving under multivariate Brownian motion random walk. Through simulation analyses, we demonstrated model accuracy and precision that improved as phylogeny size increased. We also demonstrated our model on a clade of eastern United States Plethodontid salamanders by accurately estimating species niche, even when no occurrence data is present. Our model demonstrates a novel framework where niche changes can be studied forwards and backwards through time to understand ancestral ranges, patterns of environmental specialization, and niche in data deficient species.