A unified decision analysis framework for robust system design evaluation in the face of uncertainty

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dc.contributor.authorDuan, Chunmingen
dc.contributor.committeechairFabrycky, Wolter J.en
dc.contributor.committeememberBlanchard, Benjamin S. Jr.en
dc.contributor.committeememberKoelling, C. Patricken
dc.contributor.committeememberSarin, Subhash C.en
dc.contributor.committeememberTopuz, Ertugrulen
dc.contributor.departmentIndustrial and Systems Engineeringen
dc.date.accessioned2014-03-14T21:14:07Zen
dc.date.adate2008-06-06en
dc.date.available2014-03-14T21:14:07Zen
dc.date.issued1992-10-05en
dc.date.rdate2008-06-06en
dc.date.sdate2008-06-06en
dc.description.abstractSome engineered systems now in use are not adequately meeting the needs for which they were developed, nor are they very cost-effective in terms of consumer utilization. Many problems associated with unsatisfactory system performance and high life-cycle cost are the direct result of decisions made during early phases of system design. To develop quality systems, both engineering and management need fundamental principles and methodologies to guide decision making during system design and advanced planning. In order to provide for the efficient resolution of complex system design decisions involving uncertainty, human judgments, and value tradeoffs, an efficient and effective decision analysis framework is required. Experience indicates that an effective approach to improving the quality of detail designs is through the application of Genichi Taguchi's philosophy of robust design. How to apply Taguchi's philosophy of robust design to system design evaluation at the preliminary design stage is an open question. The goal of this research is to develop a unified decision analysis framework to support the need for developing better system designs in the face of various uncertainties. This goal is accomplished by adapting and integrating statistical decision theory, utility theory, elements of the systems engineering process, and Taguchi's philosophy of robust design. The result is a structured, systematic methodology for evaluating system design alternatives. The decision analysis framework consists of two parts: (1) decision analysis foundations, and (2) an integrated approach. Part I (Chapters 2 through 5) covers the foundations for design decision analysis in the face of uncertainty. This research begins with an examination of the life cycle of engineered systems and identification of the elements of the decision process of system design and development. After investigating various types of uncertainty involved in the process of system design, the concept of robust design is defined from the perspective of system life-cycle engineering. Some common measures for assessing the robustness of candidate system designs are then identified and examined. Then the problem of design evaluation in the face of uncertainty is studied within the context of decision theory. After classifying design decision problems into four categories, the structure of each type of problem in terms of sequence and causal relationships between various decisions and uncertain outcomes is represented by a decision tree. Based upon statistical decision theory, the foundations for choosing a best design in the face of uncertainty are identified. The assumptions underlying common objective functions in design optimization are also investigated. Some confusion and controversy which surround Taguchi's robust design criteria — loss functions and signal-to-noise ratios -- are addressed and clarified. Part Il (Chapters 6 through 9) covers models and their application to design evaluation in the face of uncertainty. Based upon the decision analysis foundations, an integrated approach is developed and presented for resolving beth discrete decisions, continuous decisions, and decisions involving both uncertainty and multiple attributes. Application of the approach is illustrated by two hypothetical examples: bridge design and repairable equipment population system design.en
dc.description.degreePh. D.en
dc.format.extentxv, 233 leavesen
dc.format.mediumBTDen
dc.format.mimetypeapplication/pdfen
dc.identifier.otheretd-06062008-170155en
dc.identifier.sourceurlhttp://scholar.lib.vt.edu/theses/available/etd-06062008-170155/en
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10919/38386en
dc.language.isoenen
dc.publisherVirginia Techen
dc.relation.haspartLD5655.V856_1992.D836.pdfen
dc.relation.isformatofOCLC# 27880805en
dc.rightsIn Copyrighten
dc.rights.urihttp://rightsstatements.org/vocab/InC/1.0/en
dc.subject.lccLD5655.V856 1992.D836en
dc.subject.lcshDecision making -- Mathematical modelsen
dc.subject.lcshRobust statisticsen
dc.subject.lcshSystems engineeringen
dc.titleA unified decision analysis framework for robust system design evaluation in the face of uncertaintyen
dc.typeDissertationen
dc.type.dcmitypeTexten
thesis.degree.disciplineIndustrial and Systems Engineeringen
thesis.degree.grantorVirginia Polytechnic Institute and State Universityen
thesis.degree.leveldoctoralen
thesis.degree.namePh. D.en

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