Requirements for the containment of COVID-19 disease outbreaks through periodic testing, isolation, and quarantine

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dc.contributor.authorSerrao, Shannon R.en
dc.contributor.authorDeng, Shengfengen
dc.contributor.authorPriyankaen
dc.contributor.authorMukhamadiarov, Ruslan I.en
dc.contributor.authorChilds, Lauren M.en
dc.contributor.authorTäuber, Uwe C.en
dc.date.accessioned2021-08-16T17:48:16Zen
dc.date.available2021-08-16T17:48:16Zen
dc.date.issued2020-10-25en
dc.description.abstractWe employ individual-based Monte Carlo computer simulations of a stochastic SEIR model variant on a two-dimensional Newman{Watts small-world network to investigate the control of epidemic outbreaks through periodic testing and isolation of infectious individuals, and subsequent quarantine of their immediate contacts. Using disease parameters informed by the COVID-19 pandemic, we investigate the effects of various crucial mitigation features on the epidemic spreading: fraction of the infectious population that is identifiable through the tests; testing frequency; time delay between testing and isolation of positively tested individuals; and the further time delay until quarantining their contacts as well as the quarantine duration. We thus determine the required ranges for these intervention parameters to yield effective control of the disease through both considerable delaying the epidemic peak and massively reducing the total number of sustained infections.en
dc.description.notesmedRxiv preprinten
dc.description.sponsorshipResearch was sponsored by the U.S. Army Research Office and was accomplished under Grant Number W911NF-17-1-0156. The views and conclusions contained in this document are those of the authors and should not be interpreted as representing the official policies, either expressed or implied, of the Army Research Office or the U.S. Government. The U.S. Government is authorized to reproduce and distribute reprints for Government purposes notwithstanding any copyright notation herein. L.M.C. acknowledges support of NSF RAPID Grant Number 2029262. S.S. acknowledges support from the Fralin Biomedical Research Institute. S.D. acknowledges a fellowship from the China Scholarship Council (CSC) under Grant CSC Number 201806770029.en
dc.description.versionSubmitted versionen
dc.format.extent19 pagesen
dc.format.mimetypeapplication/pdfen
dc.identifier.doihttps://doi.org/10.1101/2020.10.21.20217331en
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10919/104652en
dc.language.isoenen
dc.publisherVirginia Techen
dc.rightsCreative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 Internationalen
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/en
dc.titleRequirements for the containment of COVID-19 disease outbreaks through periodic testing, isolation, and quarantineen
dc.typeArticleen

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Scholarly Works, Center for Soft Matter and Biological Physics
Destination Area: Global Systems Science (GSS)
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