A Deep Learning Approach to Predict Accident Occurrence Based on Traffic Dynamics

Traffic accidents are of concern for traffic safety; 1.25 million deaths are reported each year. Hence, it is crucial to have access to real-time data and rapidly detect or predict accidents. Predicting the occurrence of a highway car accident accurately any significant length of time into the future is not feasible since the vast majority of crashes occur due to unpredictable human negligence and/or error. However, rapid traffic incident detection could reduce incident-related congestion and secondary crashes, alleviate the waste of vehicles’ fuel and passengers’ time, and provide appropriate information for emergency response and field operation. While the focus of most previously proposed techniques is predicting the number of accidents in a certain region, the problem of predicting the accident occurrence or fast detection of the accident has been little studied. To address this gap, we propose a deep learning approach and build a deep neural network model based on long short term memory (LSTM). We apply it to forecast the expected speed values on freeways’ links and identify the anomalies as potential accident occurrences. Several detailed features such as weather, traffic speed, and traffic flow of upstream and downstream points are extracted from big datasets. We assess the proposed approach on a traffic dataset from Sacramento, California. The experimental results demonstrate the potential of the proposed approach in identifying the anomalies in speed value and matching them with accidents in the same area. We show that this approach can handle a high rate of rapid accident detection and be implemented in real-time travelers’ information or emergency management systems.