Impact of Interdependent Physical and Social characteristics on Housing Recovery Following Tropical Cyclones

Abstract

The aim of this study is to explore the interdependent impact of existing social (median household income) and physical (percent damage) characteristics on housing risk of a coastal community as the percent chance of vacancy followed by tropical cyclones. We developed a housing risk assessment framework for an idealized hypothetical study area consistent with existing physical and social characteristics of Hampton Roads, Virginia, USA. The housing risk assessment framework was simulated for a time period of 10 years and the distinct trends in housing recovery were observed for variations in the physical and social variables. The unique feature of the framework is its ability to demonstrate housing recovery risk for single and consecutive multi-hazards (combined storm surge and wind hazard) with a consideration of both existing physical and social characteristics of a coastal community. The applicability of the framework further lies in user-defined scenarios like events of gentrification (lower income households being replaced by medium income households) and modified recovery rates. To distinguish between the trends we grouped the percent damage and median household income in high, low and medium classes. It was found that the highest damage and lowest income groups recovered the slowest with an expected residual chance of housing vacancy even after 10 years. Some major findings of the study included - multi-hazards caused an amplification in housing risk compared to single hazard and gentrification was found to reduce effects of multi-hazard and hence faster recovery than without gentrification. This framework therefore has promising implications in disaster resilience and risk management policies and planning for coastal multi-hazards as it can predict impacts of extreme scenarios along with contributions towards the need for immediate intervention post disaster.