A cyclical wildfire pattern as the outcome of a coupled human natural system

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dc.contributor.authorFarkhondehmaal, Farshaden
dc.contributor.authorGhaffarzadegan, Naviden
dc.date.accessioned2023-01-30T18:09:00Zen
dc.date.available2023-01-30T18:09:00Zen
dc.date.issued2022-03-28en
dc.date.updated2023-01-28T15:46:50Zen
dc.description.abstractOver the past decades, wildfire has imposed a considerable cost on natural resources and human lives. In many regions, annual wildfire trends show puzzling oscillatory patterns with increasing amplitudes for burned areas over time. This paper aims to examine the potential causes of such patterns by developing and examining a dynamic simulation model that represents interconnected social and natural dynamics in a coupled system. We develop a generic dynamic model and, based on simulation results, postulate that the interconnection between human and natural subsystems is a source of the observed cyclical patterns in wildfires in which risk perception regulates activities that can result in more fire and development of vulnerable properties. Our simulation-based policy analysis points to a non-linear characteristic of the system, which rises due to the interconnections between the human side and the natural side of the system. This has a major policy implication: in contrast to studies that look for the most effective policy to contain wildfires, we show that a long-term solution is not a single action but is a combination of multiple actions that simultaneously target both human and natural sides of the system.en
dc.description.versionPublished versionen
dc.format.extent14 page(s)en
dc.format.mimetypeapplication/pdfen
dc.identifierARTN 5280 (Article number)en
dc.identifier.doihttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-08730-yen
dc.identifier.eissn2045-2322en
dc.identifier.issn2045-2322en
dc.identifier.issue1en
dc.identifier.orcidGhaffarzadegan, Navid [0000-0003-3632-8588]en
dc.identifier.other10.1038/s41598-022-08730-y (PII)en
dc.identifier.pmid35347175en
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10919/113561en
dc.identifier.volume12en
dc.language.isoenen
dc.publisherNature Portfolioen
dc.relation.urihttp://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcApp=PARTNER_APP&SrcAuth=LinksAMR&KeyUT=WOS:000774204500033&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=ALL_WOS&UsrCustomerID=930d57c9ac61a043676db62af60056c1en
dc.rightsCreative Commons Attribution 4.0 Internationalen
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/en
dc.subjecttemporal patternsen
dc.subjectrisken
dc.subjectforesten
dc.subjectclimateen
dc.subjecthazarden
dc.subjectsimulationen
dc.subjectmitigationen
dc.subjectpredictionen
dc.subjectdynamicsen
dc.subjectsavannaen
dc.subjectclinical researchen
dc.subject.meshHumansen
dc.subject.meshConservation of Natural Resourcesen
dc.subject.meshFiresen
dc.subject.meshPolicyen
dc.subject.meshNatural Resourcesen
dc.subject.meshWildfiresen
dc.titleA cyclical wildfire pattern as the outcome of a coupled human natural systemen
dc.title.serialScientific Reportsen
dc.typeArticle - Refereeden
dc.type.dcmitypeTexten
dc.type.otherArticleen
dc.type.otherJournalen
dcterms.dateAccepted2022-02-21en
pubs.organisational-group/Virginia Techen
pubs.organisational-group/Virginia Tech/Engineeringen
pubs.organisational-group/Virginia Tech/Engineering/Industrial and Systems Engineeringen
pubs.organisational-group/Virginia Tech/All T&R Facultyen
pubs.organisational-group/Virginia Tech/Engineering/COE T&R Facultyen
pubs.organisational-group/Virginia Tech/Report testen

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