Utilization of the empiric land use forecasting model for investigations of urban development planning strategies

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Virginia Polytechnic Institute


The purpose of this research was to use the EMPIRIC Land Use Forecasting Model to investigate urban development planning strategies. These investigations required two applications, the first dealing with the selection of certain regional plans describing the use of transportation, zoning, open space, utilities, etc., and the subsequent determination of subregional land use values for the forecast period. The second application dealt with the selection of a regional transportation (travel time) improvement plan that would induce growth in subregional land use variables that would bring their intensities as close to a priori goals as possible. The EMPIRIC Land Use Forecasting Model was used because it appeared to be the most reliable land use prediction model available.

The first objective was accomplished by the solution of simultaneous linear equations, with nine equations for each of the three traffic zones. It was determined that the EMPIRIC Model did determine the future subregional land use variables with a high degree of reliability.

Goal programming was used to accomplish the second objective, and through a series of manipulations, a linear program was developed that would determine future transportation plans if realistic subregional land use variables were selected as goals.

It can be said that the EMPIRIC Land Use Forecasting Model is a definite aid in the urban planning process, and from its use, plans for a city's future can be formulated that will include simultaneous changes in both land use and transportation facilities.