Modeling the United States Unemployment Rate with the Preisach Model of Hysteresis

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dc.contributor.authorHutton, Richard Shaneen
dc.contributor.committeechairRogers, Robert C.en
dc.contributor.committeememberFritz, Matthewen
dc.contributor.committeememberBorggaard, Jeffrey T.en
dc.contributor.departmentMathematicsen
dc.date.accessioned2014-03-14T20:36:20Zen
dc.date.adate2009-05-29en
dc.date.available2014-03-14T20:36:20Zen
dc.date.issued2009-05-08en
dc.date.rdate2009-05-29en
dc.date.sdate2009-05-11en
dc.description.abstractA system with hysteresis is one that exhibits path dependent but rate independent memory. Hysteresis can be observed physically through the magnetization of a ferromagnetic material. In order to mathematically describe systems with hysteresis, we use the Preisach model. A discussion of the Preisach model is given as well as a method for computing the hysteretic transformation of an input variable. The focus of this paper is hysteresis in economics, namely, unemployment. We consider essential time series techniques for analyzing time series data, i.e. unit root testing for stationarity. However, we point out problems in modeling hysteresis with these techniques and argue that unit root tests cannot capture the selective memory of a system with hysteresis. For that, hysteresis in economic time series data is modeled using the Preisach model. We test the explanatory power of the previous unemployment rate on the current unemployment rate using both a hysteretic and non-hysteretic model. We find that the non-hysteretic model is better at explaining current unemployment rates, which suggests hysteresis is not present in the United States unemployment rate.en
dc.description.degreeMaster of Scienceen
dc.identifier.otheretd-05112009-172919en
dc.identifier.sourceurlhttp://scholar.lib.vt.edu/theses/available/etd-05112009-172919/en
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10919/32595en
dc.publisherVirginia Techen
dc.relation.haspartHuttonMastersThesis.pdfen
dc.rightsIn Copyrighten
dc.rights.urihttp://rightsstatements.org/vocab/InC/1.0/en
dc.subjectHysteresisen
dc.subjectPreisach Modelen
dc.subjectStationarityen
dc.subjectUnit Rooten
dc.titleModeling the United States Unemployment Rate with the Preisach Model of Hysteresisen
dc.typeThesisen
thesis.degree.disciplineMathematicsen
thesis.degree.grantorVirginia Polytechnic Institute and State Universityen
thesis.degree.levelmastersen
thesis.degree.nameMaster of Scienceen

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