Spatial–Temporal Patterns of Methane Emissions from Livestock in Xinjiang During 2000–2020

Abstract

Livestock represent a significant source of methane (CH₄) emissions, particularly in pastoral regions. However, in Xinjiang—a pivotal pastoral region of China—the spatiotemporal patterns of livestock CH₄ emissions remain poorly characterized, constraining regional mitigation actions. Here, a detailed CH₄ emissions inventory for livestock in Xinjiang spanning the period 2000–2020 is compiled. Eight livestock categories were covered, gridded livestock maps were developed, and the dynamic emission factors were built by using the IPCC 2019 Tier 2 approaches. Results indicate that the CH₄ emissions increased from ~0.7 Tg in 2000 to ~0.9 Tg in 2020, a 28.5% increase over the past twenty years. Beef cattle contributed the most to the emission increase (59.6% of total increase), followed by dairy cattle (35.7%), sheep (13.9%), and pigs (4.3%). High-emission hotspots were consistently located in the Ili River Valley, Bortala, and the northwestern margins of the Tarim Basin. Temporal trend analysis revealed increasing emission intensities in these regions, reflecting the influence of policy shifts, rangeland dynamics, and evolving livestock production systems. The high-resolution map of CH₄ emissions from livestock and their temporal trends provides key insights into CH₄ mitigation, with enteric fermentation showing greater potential for emission reduction. This study offers the first long-term, high-resolution CH₄ emission inventory for Xinjiang, providing essential spatial insights to inform targeted mitigation strategies and enhance sustainable livestock management in arid and semi-arid ecosystems.