Low Flow Variations in Source Water Supply for the Occoquan Reservoir System Based on a 100-Year Climate Forecast

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dc.contributor.authorMaldonado, Philip Pasqualen
dc.contributor.committeechairMoglen, Glenn E.en
dc.contributor.committeememberGodrej, Adil N.en
dc.contributor.committeememberGrizzard, Thomas J.en
dc.contributor.departmentEnvironmental Engineeringen
dc.date.accessioned2014-03-14T20:46:01Zen
dc.date.adate2011-09-29en
dc.date.available2014-03-14T20:46:01Zen
dc.date.issued2011-09-14en
dc.date.rdate2012-11-06en
dc.date.sdate2011-09-26en
dc.description.abstractThe reliability of future water supplies comes into question with the onset of global climate change and the variations in local weather patterns that it brings. Changes in temperature, precipitation, soil moisture, and sea level can all have an impact on drinking water storage and supply. As these impacts are realized, it is increasingly important to use forward projecting estimates of future supply through the use of general circulation models (GCMs). GCMs can be used to predict changes in local weather over the next century. Using GCM data as input to a hydrologic model of local water supplies, water supply managers can assess and be better prepared for the impact of these possible changes. Land use/demand in particular has an impact on runoff characteristics within a watershed. By incorporating changes in land use/demand into hydrologic model simulations, a more complete picture can be generated of the possible runoff characteristics, and thereby source water supply. The four land use scenarios used in this study are: 1) present day land use/demand; 2) projected land use/demand to 2040; 3) projected land use/demand to 2070; and 4) projected land use/demand to 2100. This study uses established techniques to incorporate both climate and land use/demand change into a hydrologic model of the Occoquan watershed, which encompasses an area of approximately 1,550 square kilometers in Northern Virginia, U.S.A., and is part of the drinking water supply to approximately 1.7 million residents.en
dc.description.degreeMaster of Scienceen
dc.identifier.otheretd-09262011-113034en
dc.identifier.sourceurlhttp://scholar.lib.vt.edu/theses/available/etd-09262011-113034/en
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10919/35203en
dc.publisherVirginia Techen
dc.relation.haspartMaldonado_PP_T_2011.pdfen
dc.rightsIn Copyrighten
dc.rights.urihttp://rightsstatements.org/vocab/InC/1.0/en
dc.subjectwater supplyen
dc.subjecthydrologyen
dc.subjectlow flowen
dc.subjectdownscalingen
dc.subjectclimate changeen
dc.titleLow Flow Variations in Source Water Supply for the Occoquan Reservoir System Based on a 100-Year Climate Forecasten
dc.typeThesisen
thesis.degree.disciplineEnvironmental Planningen
thesis.degree.grantorVirginia Polytechnic Institute and State Universityen
thesis.degree.levelmastersen
thesis.degree.nameMaster of Scienceen

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