The effect of model structure and data availability on Usutu virus dynamics at three biological scales

Simple item page
dc.contributor.authorHeitzman-Breen, Noraen
dc.contributor.authorLiyanage, Yuganthi R.en
dc.contributor.authorDuggal, Nishaen
dc.contributor.authorTuncer, Necibeen
dc.contributor.authorCiupe, Stanca M.en
dc.date.accessioned2025-01-09T14:56:47Zen
dc.date.available2025-01-09T14:56:47Zen
dc.date.issued2024-02-07en
dc.description.abstractUnderstanding the epidemiology of emerging pathogens, such as Usutu virus (USUV) infections, requires systems investigation at each scale involved in the host-virus transmission cycle, from individual bird infections, to bird-to-vector transmissions, and to USUV incidence in bird and vector populations. For new pathogens field data are sparse, and predictions can be aided by the use of laboratory-type inoculation and transmission experiments combined with dynamical mathematical modelling. In this study, we investigated the dynamics of two strains of USUV by constructing mathematical models for the within-host scale, bird-to-vector transmission scale and vector-borne epidemiological scale. We used individual within-host infectious virus data and per cent mosquito infection data to predict USUV incidence in birds and mosquitoes. We addressed the dependence of predictions on model structure, data uncertainty and experimental design. We found that uncertainty in predictions at one scale change predicted results at another scale. We proposed in silico experiments that showed that sampling every 12 hours ensures practical identifiability of the within-host scale model. At the same time, we showed that practical identifiability of the transmission scale functions can only be improved under unrealistically high sampling regimes. Instead, we proposed optimal experimental designs and suggested the types of experiments that can ensure identifiability at the transmission scale and, hence, induce robustness in predictions at the epidemiological scale.en
dc.description.versionPublished versionen
dc.format.extent18 page(s)en
dc.format.mimetypeapplication/pdfen
dc.identifierARTN 231146 (Article number)en
dc.identifier.doihttps://doi.org/10.1098/rsos.231146en
dc.identifier.eissn2054-5703en
dc.identifier.issn2054-5703en
dc.identifier.issue2en
dc.identifier.orcidCiupe, Mihaela [0000-0002-5386-6946]en
dc.identifier.orcidDuggal, Nisha [0000-0002-9893-8069]en
dc.identifier.otherPMC10846940en
dc.identifier.otherrsos231146 (PII)en
dc.identifier.pmid38328567en
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10919/124003en
dc.identifier.volume11en
dc.language.isoenen
dc.publisherRoyal Societyen
dc.relation.urihttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/38328567en
dc.rightsCreative Commons Attribution 4.0 Internationalen
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/en
dc.subjectmathematical modelen
dc.subjectvirus dynamicsen
dc.subjectmulti-scale modelsen
dc.subjectmodel identifiabilityen
dc.subjectimmuno-epidemiological modelsen
dc.titleThe effect of model structure and data availability on Usutu virus dynamics at three biological scalesen
dc.title.serialRoyal Society Open Scienceen
dc.typeArticle - Refereeden
dc.type.dcmitypeTexten
dc.type.otherArticleen
dcterms.dateAccepted2024-01-11en
pubs.organisational-groupVirginia Techen
pubs.organisational-groupVirginia Tech/Scienceen
pubs.organisational-groupVirginia Tech/Science/Mathematicsen
pubs.organisational-groupVirginia Tech/Veterinary Medicineen
pubs.organisational-groupVirginia Tech/Veterinary Medicine/Biomedical Sciences and Pathobiologyen
pubs.organisational-groupVirginia Tech/Faculty of Health Sciencesen
pubs.organisational-groupVirginia Tech/All T&R Facultyen
pubs.organisational-groupVirginia Tech/Science/COS T&R Facultyen
pubs.organisational-groupVirginia Tech/Veterinary Medicine/CVM T&R Facultyen

Files

Original bundle
Now showing 1 - 1 of 1
Thumbnail Image
Name:
The effect of model structure and data availability on Usutu virus dynamics at three biological scales.pdf
Size:
1.18 MB
Format:
Adobe Portable Document Format
Description:
Published version
Download
License bundle
Now showing 1 - 1 of 1
Name:
license.txt
Size:
1.5 KB
Format:
Plain Text
Description:
Download

Collections

All Faculty Deposits
Scholarly Works, Biomedical Sciences and Pathobiology
Scholarly Works, Mathematics