Striped Bass and Summer Flounder Population Dynamics in the Chesapeake Bay: an Ecosystem Based Evaluation

The Chesapeake Bay is the largest estuary in the United States and is highly productive making it a key habitat for species like striped bass and summer flounder. Striped bass and summer flounder have exhibited changes in abundance over recent years within the Chesapeake Bay. There is a lack of understanding of how environmental factors may be impacting striped bass and summer flounder abundance and how other species may be responding to these environmental drivers. To improve our understanding of striped bass, summer flounder and the aquatic community we set out to identify the environmental drives of their abundance changes from local to global scales. The fish community in the Bay has previously shifted due to environmental perturbations, so we also investigate if the community has changed more recently. We used a hurdle model to standardize interannual abundance of fish species caught in the Chesapeake Bay from two sources of fishery-independent trawl survey data. This standardization process led to relative abundance indices for 58 late juvenile to adult species from 2002-2018, and relative abundance indices for 26 juvenile species from 1995-2019. Species with similar and contrary abundance trends with striped bass and summer flounder were identified through a correlation analysis, and life history traits were assessed between species to determine mechanisms of change. We then used nonmetric multidimensional scaling (nMDS) to see if the community structure had drastically changed, the applied a principal response curve (PRC) to investigate the spatial and functional group change of the community. Among the factors examined, sea surface temperature (SST) in the Bay has increased since 2006 based on change point analysis while the mean Bay SST range and gradient have both decreased. Striped bass have had variable abundance in the Bay but exhibited a positive correlation with increasing SST. Summer flounder have declined in abundance since 2006 in the Bay and exhibited a negative correlation with increasing SST. Striped bass and summer flounder had relationships with global climate oscillations such as the winter North Atlantic Oscillation, Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, and the Gulf Stream North Wall oscillation. From a community perspective, our results showed that the late juvenile to adult fish community shifted after 2011, which coincided with the freshwater surge due Hurricane Irene and Tropical Storm Lee. The increase in abundance of striped bass, Bay anchovy, and Atlantic menhaden, and decrease in abundance of summer flounder, weakfish, spot, and Atlantic croaker were the main species that contributed to the difference in community structure after 2011. The change in functional group structure after 2011 was defined by a decline in opportunistic demersal fish, and this change was significantly different in the portion of the Bay north of the Potomac River. We did not identify any significant correlation between functional groups and environmental factors but did discover the important relationship that top predators like striped bass and summer flounder have with their key fish prey species, both in presence and population trends. Long term monitoring and further research in to how the community changed over smaller periods and the distribution changes of species could improve our understanding of what is impacting the Chesapeake Bay community to inform better management strategies.