Economic costs of extreme heat on groundnut production in the Senegal Groundnut Basin

Groundnut production is vital to the Senegalese agricultural economy, particularly in the Groundnut Basin. However the region is increasingly affected by climate change and associated rising temperatures. This study investigates long-term changes in the frequency of extreme temperatures in the Groundnut Basin and the impact of extreme temperatures on groundnut production. The current economic costs of extreme temperatures on groundnut farmers and potential future additional economic costs associated with climate change are then calculated. The study uses a two-year panel dataset from 1,123 households in the Groundnut Basin and weather data from meteorological stations and the ERA5 climate database. Results identify a significant increasing trend in extreme temperatures across the Groundnut Basin and a negative relationship between extreme temperatures and groundnut yield. This leads to financial losses for farmers, with adaptation strategies such as input level adjustments providing partial mitigation. Future projections indicate further increases in extreme heat degrees days, resulting in significant yield losses by 2050. But the implications of extreme heat also extend beyond agriculture, affecting human habitation and exacerbating societal inequalities. The findings highlight the potential long-term effects of increasing temperatures on agricultural practices in the Groundnut Basin and underscore the need for adaptation and mitigation strategies to cope with the impacts of climate change.