Short-run impacts of a value added tax on forest products

Abstract

As the federal deficit rises in the United States, interest in a consumption tax system or the value added tax (VAT) also increases. This investigation attempts to determine the short-run impacts of a value added tax upon private forest management. A literature review investigates the theoretical economic impacts of a VAT and experience with the tax in other countries. Then supply and demand functions in both the southern pine sawtimber stumpage and new single-facility housing sector are empirically derived. These functions are used to determine the short-run housing price elasticities of the quantity of houses sold and the price and quantity of stumpage sold. From this, the impact of a VAT-induced housing price change is determined, and simulation with different VAT rates are performed. Based on housing markets alone, it is found that a VAT is likely to cause a short-run reduction in sawtimber stumpage price and quantity demanded which is less than 1/10 percent of the VAT rate.